678
FNUS71 KCTP 012346
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Meads Mill Rx...USFS
National Weather Service State College PA
746 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2000 EDT on May 01.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will bring mostly sunny and warm weather with light
winds to the area Thursday. Relative humidity should dip to near
30 percent in the afternoon. Expect increasing clouds and higher
humidity Friday ahead of an approaching warm front, with the
chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm.


.THURSDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 74.
Min Humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing Height.......3300 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 8 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................16 to 29.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  20  20  17  15  13  11  13  15  9   14  11  8
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  49  50  54  57  60  64  67  69  71  73  73  74
RH................  89  86  77  69  60  52  45  42  38  35  34  33
20 FT Wind Dir....  W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT Wind Spd....  3   3   4   4   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   5
20 FT Wind Gust...  6   7   8   8   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  8
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.4 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.2
Transp Wind Dir...  W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp Wind Spd...  9   8   12  13  12  12  12  10  12  12  12  10
LVORI.............  5   5   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI...............  16  16  16  25  25  25  28  28  28  29  29  29
Haines Index......  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 50.
Max Humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming southeast around
                    5 mph overnight.
Mixing Height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 7 to 9 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 9 mph early in the morning.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 to 4.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  7   6   5   10  15  21  21  22  23  27  32  36
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  72  69  65  61  58  55  54  53  53  52  52  51
RH................  35  39  45  51  59  66  69  69  69  71  71  74
20 FT Wind Dir....  N   N   N   NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT Wind Spd....  5   5   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT Wind Gust...  8   7   7   6   6   5   6   6   7   7   7   7
Mix Hgt (kft).....  2.7 1.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp Wind Dir...  NW  N   N   NE  NE  E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE
Transp Wind Spd...  9   7   7   7   7   7   7   8   9   9   9   9
LVORI.............  2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI...............  4   4   4   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
Haines Index......  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.FRIDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1500, then 9-15 strikes until
                    1700, then 16-25 strikes.
Max Temperature.....Around 81.
Min Humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming south 5 to 6 mph
                    late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing Height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................10 to 38.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  38  41  43  45  47  50  53  56  58  61  64  67
Weather Cov.......                                      SCH SCH CHC
Weather Type......                                      RW  RW  RW
Tstm Cov..........                                      SCH SCH CHC
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   3   3   4
Temp..............  50  51  56  61  66  71  74  77  80  81  81  79
RH................  80  80  69  62  56  51  48  43  41  39  41  44
20 FT Wind Dir....  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT Wind Spd....  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   5   6   6
20 FT Wind Gust...  7   7   8   8   8   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.9 3.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8
Transp Wind Dir...  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp Wind Spd...  9   9   9   10  10  12  12  12  12  12  13  13
LVORI.............  4   4   3   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  10  10  10  22  22  22  35  35  35  38  38  38
Haines Index......  5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...Fitzgerald
Requested by...Paul Clement
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412988.0/CTP
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL paul.clement@usda.gov