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000
FXUS63 KDDC 222335
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
635 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southwest winds gusting to 45 mph Monday.

- Dry cold front with strong northeast winds Tuesday.

- Southeast winds and increasing moisture Wednesday.

- Strong south winds Thursday, with scattered thunderstorms,
  with some severe weather possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Midday surface observations depicted strong southwest winds
across SW KS, with the core of strongest winds from Liberal to
Dodge City to Hays, where some gusts have reached 50 mph. These
strong SWly downslope contributions, combined with 850 mb
temperatures warming to near or over 20C, will send temperatures
soaring into the lower to mid 80s. With such a favorable
warming regime over very dry topsoils, forecast continues
to be several degrees above much of the guidance.

South to southwest winds will decrease some at sunset, but
remain elevated through tonight, effectively deterring
radiational cooling. Most locations will hold in the 40s through
Tuesday morning, with the assistance of a low level jet and
boundary layer mixing. Weak low pressure will slide southeast
tonight, with winds trending NWly through 7 am.

A dry cold front will sweep through SW KS 7-10 am Tuesday, and
reach the Oklahoma border no later than noon. Strong north to
northeast winds will begin as soon as mixing commences, by
10 am, with gusts in the 35-40 mph range. Northeast winds will
be strongest at midday, then gradually relax in the afternoon as
gradients weaken. Models remain consistent showing only modest
cold air advection Tuesday, with a cooling of 7-8C at 850mb. All
locations will still easily warm into the lower to mid 70s,
especially given the enhancement of the dry topsoils.

Warm advection over the cooler airmass may supply enough lift
to generate scattered light rain Tuesday night/early Wednesday.
Kept pops in the conservative chance category as inherited.
Even if the wetter models verify, QPF of less than 0.10 inch
will be typical. 12z GFS/GEFS are quite dry with this, with EPS
probability of QPF > 0.10 inch at 10-20% along and north of
K-96. A fancy way to say: don`t expect much.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Broad midlevel ridging to zonal flow will continue Wednesday,
with elevated southeast winds beginning the process of moisture
advection from the Gulf of Mexico. This process will be gradual,
with dewpoints expected to climb into the lower 50s by Wednesday
evening. A few rain showers may favor the southeast zones
Wednesday afternoon and evening as moisture increases, but
forcing will be limited, and not expecting much.

Strong shortwave and closed midlevel cyclone near Las Vegas 7 am
Thursday will at least approach the plains Thursday evening.
12z GFS/GEFS ensembles are still progressive enough for this
forcing to arrive on the expected dryline over SW KS at peak
heating, while the 12z ECMWF and many of its ensembles are
noticeably slower with the shortwave`s ejection. Slower guidance
only has the primary shortwave near the Four Corners at 7 pm,
which would make diurnal convective initiation on the dryline
difficult or probematic. The dryline will certainly be well
established Thursday, with lower to mid 60s dewpoints expected,
along with sufficient CAPE/shear to support severe convection.
Uncertainty revolves around the strength of convective
inhibition, a negative factor that would be magnified by late
arrival of forcing for ascent (after sunset Thursday night).
Chance category pops from the NBM favor the eastern zones, where
moisture and instability will be in place. West of US 83,
rainfall will be hard to come by. 12z EPS probability of QPF >
0.10 inch is only 10-40% Thursday evening, lowest along US 83,
ranging to highest across eastern zones. Locally heavy rainfall
is expected where storms develop, but there is no skill in
forecasting this placement with any accuracy this far out.
Southeast to south winds will be intense Thursday into Thursday
night, with strong cyclogenesis over SE Colorado 7 pm Thursday,
tracking to NW KS 7 am Friday, accompanied by a strong low level
jet. Increased all wind grids through this period to the 90%ile
of the NBM. Friday morning will be windy and mild, with many
locations remaining in the 50s through sunrise.

SW KS will be dryslotted Friday, as the cyclone lifts north into
Nebraska. Warm, windy and dry for most, with elevated to strong
southwest to west winds. Again, increased winds to the 90%ile of
the NBM based on this windy pattern recognition.

A brief lull in active weather is expected centered on Saturday
morning, as transient ridging passes overhead, ahead of the next
strong trough reloading over the Four Corners. As such, the
forecast is dry through this period. Starting at the Four
Corners 7 am Saturday, this second closed low is expected to be
in the vicinity of Elkhart at 7 pm Saturday, a more favorable
track and timing for severe thunderstorms on the central and
southern plains. Current solutions favor the highest risk of
significant severe for the southeast zones to western Oklahoma.
NBM pops show a pronounced relative maximum on Saturday evening.
If this shortwave tracks a bit south, SW KS may end up
benefiting from several hours of deformation zone rainfall, and
strong north winds, Saturday night. 12z EPS probability of
measurable rainfall peaks at 80% Saturday night. This appears
to be the next best chance of widespread rainfall for much of SW
KS, and we will hope for the best, as short term drought
continues to intensify.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Clouds will be on the increase at or above 10000ft AGL
between 03z and 12z Tuesday as an upper level disturbance
crosses the Central and Northern Plains. Gusty southwest winds
will fall back into the 10 to 15 knot range by sunset as the
boundary layer winds decouple. As the surface winds decrease a
low level jet will develop with wind speeds of 40 to 45 knots
possible overnight across the Garden City, Dodge City and
Liberal areas. As a result have inserted a period of low level
wind shear into the 00z TAFS. A cold front will cross southwest
Kansas between 06z and 09z Tuesday. As this cold front passes
the south southwest winds will shift to the North northwest.
The wind speeds will then increase from 10 to 15 knots to near
25 knots between 12z and 15z Tuesday.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert