193
FXUS63 KDDC 280513
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1213 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 40-60% chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
  across central Kansas and a small portion of west central
  Kansas through this evening.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast mid-week with
  thunderstorm chances (30-50%) as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

WV imagery indicates a strong southwesterly flow aloft prevailing
across the Western High Plains downstream of an amplified upper
level trough of low pressure shifting slowly east through the Four
Corners Region. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is
situated across extreme southwest Kansas with an attendant frontal
boundary extending northeast into central Kansas. A sharpening
dryline extends from southwest Kansas southward into the extreme
eastern portion of the Texas Panhandle.

Thunderstorm chances (40-60%) remain mainly for portions of central
Kansas through this evening as a series of H5 vort maxima continue
to eject northeast out of the Southern Rockies ahead of an approaching
upper level trough. Based on radar trends/CAMs, ongoing/developing
thunderstorms are progged to lift north-northeast off a nearly
stationary dryline in the extreme eastern Texas Panhandle and
through northwest Oklahoma into south central Kansas mid/late
afternoon. Supported by a strong +100kt subtropical jet, MLCAPE
values upward of 3000-3500 J/kg, and sufficient deep layer shear
(effective shear values upward of 55-60kt), storms have the
potential to become severe with large hail (2 to 3 inches) and
damaging winds the main threat. To a lesser extent, a tornado
threat exists with the latest mesoanalysis (19Z) showing 0-1km
SRH nearing 100 m2/s2 in central Kansas. As for the best chance
for appreciable rainfall, the latest HREF indicates a 30-50%
probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.15 of an inch in a corridor
generally confined to central and south central Kansas with much
of southwest Kansas remaining relatively dry behind the dryline.

Fairly seasonal temperatures are forecast tonight as a cold front
pushes through western Kansas overnight, allowing cooler air to
surge southward into the area and dropping H85 temperatures well
below 10C. With the HREF indicating better than a 90% probability
of temperatures falling below 50F in west central and extreme
southwest Kansas to only a 10 to 20% probability in south central
Kansas, look for lows tonight down into the 40s(F) across much
of area with the lower 50s(F) in south central Kansas. Cooler
temperatures can be expected Sunday with the HREF painting only
10-20% probability of highs exceeding 65F west central Kansas to
an 80-90% probability of highs exceeding 70F in south central
Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A relatively dry pattern is forecast through the middle part of next
week as medium range ensembles indicate an upper level trough lifting
northeast into the Upper Midwest Monday, giving way to a zonal flow
aloft across the Western High Plains for a couple days before a
southwesterly flow aloft returns ahead of an approaching shortwave
trough. Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) return to central Kansas and
portions of southwest Kansas late Wednesday/early Thursday as another
upper level shortwave digs southeast through the Great Basin, setting
up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft and sending an
attendant cold front into western Kansas. Prevailing southerlies
will draw ample moisture up into eastern/central Kansas, increasing
instability. Although plenty of uncertainty abounds, mainly due
to timing of the system, the best chance for thunderstorms is still
expected to be across central Kansas sometime Wednesday night into
Thursday where the NBM 4.1 paints a 30-40% probability of 12-hr QPF
exceeding 0.1 of an inch by early Thursday morning.

Temperatures rebound Monday as lee side troughing develops in eastern
Colorado, returning southerlies to western Kansas, helping push H85
temperatures up into the mid-teens(C) in central Kansas to near 20C
out by the Colorado border. With the NBM 4.1 indicating a 60-70%
probability of temperatures exceeding 75F in west central and central
Kansas to a 90% probability of that in southern southwest Kansas,
expect widespread afternoon highs in the 70s(F) with near 80F along
the Oklahoma border. The warming trend continues through mid-week
with temperatures well into the 80s(F) for much of southwest Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

BUFR soundings this morning showing an area of widespread low
MVFR ceilings spreading into southwest Kansas overnight with
even a period of IFR ceilings being possible between 07z and
15z in the Hays area. HREF probabilities also supports this and
has high chances (>70%) for these MVFR ceilings. The ceilings
will begin to gradually improve early Sunday morning with VFR
conditions developing across southwest Kansas from south to
north between 15z and 21z Sunday. Gusty northwest winds will be
at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert