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000
FXXX12 KWNP 240031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decreased slightly over the past 24 hours, with only
three low-level M-class events observed.  Were not out of the woods
yet, however.  Region 3854 (S08E31, Dai/Beta) produced two of the three
M flares, an M3.6 at 23/0319 UTC and an M3.0 at 23/0821 UTC.  Over the
past day, the leader and trailer spots in this region continued to
separate and flux continued to emerge.  Region 3845 (S08W64,
DKC/Beta-gamma) produced the final M-class event, an M2.9 at 23/1744
UTC.  It was accompanied by a Type II radio burst beginning at 23/1747
UTC and ejecta to the west was observed in GOES SUVI 304 angstrom
imagery.  Coronagraph imagery of that event is not yet available.  Also
of note was the appearance of new, rapidly emerging flux between regions
3654 and 3657 in the southeast quadrant of the visible disk.  This
region is being monitored for potential numbering.

Further analysis of the filament eruption that began at around 23/0330
UTC near S10W02 ,and was mentioned in this mornings discussion,
revealed no discernable Earth-directed CME.  However, multiple narrow,
southward CMEs as well as a larger partial halo CME associated with the
M2.9 from AR 3638 were observed.  The latter is being analyzed at the
time of this writing.

.Forecast...
Although M-flare production decreased, solar activity is still expected
to be at moderate to high levels over 24-26 Apr, with M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected, and a slight chance for an X-class
flare (R3/Strong).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) levels over 24-26 Apr due to the flare potential and
location of several active regions on the visible disk. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Ambient solar wind conditions prevailed throughout the period. Wind
speeds decreased from 400-450 km/s early in the day to between 350-400
km/s. Total field strength was steady near 5 nT and Bz varied +/-5 nT.
The phi angle was negative.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 24-26 Apr
due to CH HSS influences and possible CME activity.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with an isolated unsettled
period late.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach quiet and unsettled
levels on 24 Apr, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Unsettled
and active levels are expected again on 25 Apr from possible CME
activity and the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. These
conditions are anticipated to persist through 25 Apr.  A chance for
minor (G1) or greater geomagnetic storms persists with the eruptive
activity noted above, although there are no obvious Earth-directed
events discernible in the coronagraph imagery.