442
ACUS01 KWNS 020111
SWODY1
SPC AC 020109

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTH ACROSS
THE CONCHO VALLEY AREA OF TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
All-hazards severe-weather risk will continue this evening and into
the overnight hours across portions of the central and southern
Plains.

...Central and southern Plains...
Widely scattered thunderstorms continue this evening across a broad
portion of the central third of the CONUS.  For the remainder of the
period, two primary areas for severe-weather risk will include the
southern Nebraska/northern and central Kansas vicinity, and across
parts of Oklahoma southward across much of Texas.

Across the Nebraska and Kansas region, a couple of supercell storms
persist across western Kansas, while additional convection continues
to develop across east-central Colorado.  Upscale growth/expansion
of the Colorado storms is expected with time in response to a
strengthening low-level jet, spreading eastward across southern
Nebraska/northern Kansas into the overnight hours.  Hail should
become the primary severe threat with much of the convection well
north of the surface boundary, but locally strong/damaging wind
gusts may also occur.

Farther south across Texas, a broken band of severe/supercell storms
is ongoing from northeastern portions of the Texas Panhandle so the
South Plains, in the vicinity of a retreating dryline.  Recent
reports of severe weather including a tornado near Turkey have been
received, and expect risk for very large hail and locally damaging
wind gusts, along with a couple of tornadoes, to continue this
evening.  With time, upscale growth of this convection is expected,
in conjunction with the strengthening of the low-level jet,
spreading eastward with time along with ongoing severe risk into the
overnight hours.

Other clusters of strong/severe storms are occurring in the Concho
Valley vicinity, over the Hill country, and portions of the Piney
Woods region.  This convection may also persist/spread eastward with
time in the broad warm-advection regime, along with local risk for
hail/wind this evening and overnight.

..Goss.. 05/02/2024

$$