606
FXUS63 KEAX 141120
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued showers and thunderstorms are expected through
  Tuesday evening

- A few strong storms will be possible Wednesday night. The main
  threat will be for gusty winds to 50 mph possible.

- Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday
  into Friday. Multiple days of rain could lead to some minor
  flooding concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Currently, there is upper level troughing over our area, with
ridging entering the Great Plains. There is an upper level jet to
the southeast of our area over southeastern MO. In the lower levels
there is a surface low to the east of the area. The associated cold
front is to our east resulting in northerly winds for our region.
Remnants of wrap around scattered showers from the upper low are
continuing to dissipate over the area. As the low very slowly shifts
east of the region today, intermittent showers are expected through
this evening.

A brief break from the rain is expected as the surface low moves out
of the area and ridging moves into the area Tuesday night. This will
result in dry conditions through Wednesday morning. High
temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday are anticipated to be near
normal for this time of year. Wednesday night, a shortwave pushes
through the area resulting in a chance for some scattered showers
developing in eastern KS and moving east. With CAPE values ranging
from 500-1,000 J/kg and bulk shear values in the 30-40kt range, no
severe weather is expected; However, there is still a chance for
some of these storms to produce gusty winds. These storms are
anticipated to be east of the area by Thursday evening.

Going into Friday an active pattern continues with another trough
approaching the region from the southwest. This system may be a
little stronger than the past systems due to jet support. With the
more favorable severe weather environment to the south, severe
threats seem to be minimal over our area. At this time, scattered
showers are expected to begin early Friday morning and last through
the day.

For the start of the weekend, ridging moves in behind the trough
which should give us a short break from the rain. This weekend is
expected to remain dry with high temperatures possibly reaching the
mid to upper 80s. Extended model guidance shows confidence that the
pattern will remain active with multiple shortwaves passing through
the area giving us multiple chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

MVFR cigs are impacting MKC and IXD and are expected to move
into MCI by the TAF valid time or just after. MVFR cigs are then
expected thru 20Z-22Z before lifting to VFR. However, aft
05Z-07Z MVFR cigs with vis reduced to 4-5SM are expected to move
back into the TAF sites. Winds will be out of the N around 10kts
thru 05Z-07Z when it will become lgt and vrb.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...73