789
FXUS63 KEAX 010759
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
259 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to isolated severe storms possible this evening
  into tonight with hail the main threat.

- Showers and thunderstorms continue into Thursday with flash
  and river flooding a concern.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The cold front that had brought storms to the area last night has
pushed south of the CWA. his front will become stationary south of
the area this morning. This will keep the bulk of the area dry
during the morning hours. However, as we move into the afternoon
hours the front will start to slowly lift north across central
Missouri and central Kansas. A LLJ will develop west of the area
across eastern Kansas and models depict subtle shortwaves aloft that
may aid development. This may bring storms into the western and
northwestern CWA this afternoon. Highs will range in the 70s today.
However, as we move into this evening the LLJ will strengthen and
the nose will focus on the western CWA. This will allow storm
coverage and intensity to increase. AS such a few of these storms
may be strong to isolated severe with threat being the main threat
as these storms will be elevated in nature north of the surface
front. With the LLJ nosing into the area through the overnight
showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist this will bring the
potential for heavy and prolonged rain as PWATs are expected to
range between 1.25"-1.50" which may lead to flash and river
flooding. Storms will continue through Thursday morning as the LLJ
never really weakens. heavy rain will continue to be a concern as
PWATs will further increase to 1.50"-1.75". As we move into Thursday
afternoon, the LLJ does weaken however, a compact mid-level
shortwave will move through the area with a surface cold front. This
will spawn additional convection on Thursday afternoon however, the
severe threat is conditional. If we can clear out and get some
diurnal heating which seems in doubt at this point, a few of these
storms could be strong with marginally severe hail and gusty winds
the main threats. The cold front will finally push through the area
by Thursday evening with just light showers in it`s wake Thursday
night. By the end of the event widespread 1.50"-3.00" of rain is
expected with locally higher amounts possible. Again this will make
flooding and river flooding a concern.

A surface ridge of high pressure looks to build into the area on
Friday finally drying conditions out with seasonable highs in the
low to mid 70s. The dry period will be short-lived however, as a
upper level trough will move from the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest late Friday night into Saturday. This will force a cold
front through the area bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the area. Fortunately, this system should be
progressive enough not to cause much issue however, depend what
occurs over the next two days, any additional precipitation may not
be welcome. This round of storms will exit the area Saturday morning
with surface high pressure building back into the area. Highs
Saturday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. High pressure looks
to remain in control through most of Sunday however, late Sunday
into Sunday night a low amplitude, quick moving shortwave is
expected to eject out from the southwestern CONUS into the local
region. This will bring yet another round of showers and
thunderstorms, again fortunately, moisture will be meager with this
system. Showers associated with this feature will exit the area
early Monday. However, another more potent system is on it`s heels
for Monday night in the form of a negatively tilted trough. Both the
GFS and EC are advertising this feature as on the 00Z runs so this
will have to be monitored going forward as this would pose a
significant severe threat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT WED MAY 01 2024

VFR conds are expected thru 19Z with just sct-bkn high clouds
expected thru then. Aft 19Z...bkn cigs around 4kft are expected
with the chc for thunderstorms in the VC thru much of the rest
of the TAF pd. Right now the best chc for storms at the
terminals is btn 01Z-04Z however conf is too low for inclusion
at this time. Winds to begin the pd will be lgt and vrb at the
TAF sites except MCI which will be out of the north btn 5-10kts.
Winds by 11Z-13Z will shift to the ENE around 10kts before
becmg easterly aft 19Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73