Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
852 FXUS66 KEKA 051130 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 430 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Light showers will continue today for mainly Humboldt and Del Norte counties. Better coverage of light rainfall will develop Monday with a weak front. Building high pressure will increase northerly winds on Tuesday as a significant warming begins that will span through at least late next week. && .DISCUSSION...Isolated light showers are currently observed on radar this early morning as a late season, cold upper trough exits the region to the east. As flow transitions to zonal, additional showers will be develop today mainly in Del Norte County, and also through Humboldt. Much below average temperatures remain in the wake of the low, though inland valley fog and lingering cloud cover will hold up the temperatures for some. Clearing in Trinity County and southward will allow for freezing to frost conditions tonight, thus Freeze Watches and Frost Advisories are out. A weak frontal system will clip the region on Monday, bringing light rainfall over mainly Del Norte County where 0.25 to 0.5 inch is forecast. Much lighter values can be expected down to Trinity and Humboldt counties, while Lake and Mendocino counties will begin to experience warmer daytime temperatures. Tuesday will mark the first day of a significant warming trend through the entire forecast area that will span through at least late next week. Northerly winds will also increase on Tuesday as the a strong ridge of high pressure takes shape. There is a 40 to 60% probability of wind gusts over 35 mph Tuesday afternoon over exposed coastal headlands and ridges. Winds will also turn breezy over the higher terrain of Eastern Lake County Tuesday night through Wednesday. As the ridge continues to amplify, an upper trough looks to retrograde west into the Great Great Basin. This setup would be favorable to generate offshore flow and further enhance the warming temperatures late next week. Probabilities have been consistently high (80 to 90%) for the inland valleys to exceed 80 degrees, and 50 to 75% chance to exceed 85 degrees in the warmest interior valleys late next week. /JJW && .AVIATION...A few showers remain across the north coast early this morning. In general most areas will remain dry today but as moisture increases through the day ahead of the next front, drizzle or light showers may impact ACV and CEC bringing lowering ceilings into MVFR and brief reductions in visibility. Mountain cloud cover will bring reductions in visibility over the interior in some areas but the primary terminals, such as in Ukiah, will be mostly VFR. Southerly winds will increase along the Humboldt and Del Norte coasts Monday morning and be gusty through the day, especially at CEC, with light rain likely. /RPA && .MARINE...Winds today will be primarily from the west as the next front begins to approach the area. Southerlies will ramp up overnight ahead of the next front, peaking around midday on Monday with small craft conditions in the northern water zones. Seas will be a mix of west- northwesterly mid-period swells and southerly chop from the south winds on Monday. Quickly high pressure will build in behind the front allowing winds to turn out of the north and increase sharply. Gale force winds are likely in the southern zones by Tuesday afternoon with very steep seas building in response. The northerlies will persist for the work week, decreasing later in the week as a thermal trough pushes off the coast. /RPA && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for CAZ107-108. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Monday for CAZ110-111- 113-115. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to noon PDT Monday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to noon PDT Monday for PZZ470. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png