455
AXPZ20 KNHC 051546
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun May 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 08N105W to 06N109W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N109W to 09N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N
between 115W and 129W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 13N between 81W and 104W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad high pressure is over the offshore waters of Mexico. The
pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower
pressure in Baja California is supporting moderate to fresh
NW winds offshore the peninsula. Seas with these winds are in
the range of 5 to 6 ft within NW swell. In the Gulf of
California, winds are light and variable S of 30N along with
seas to 2 ft. N of 30N in the northern Gulf, gentle to moderate
SW winds are ongoing with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere in the S and
SW Mexican offshore waters winds are light to gentle from the NW
with moderate seas to 6 ft in mixed S and NW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San
Lazaro will increase to fresh to strong speeds this evening
through early Mon morning. South of Cabo San Lazaro, fresh winds
will dominate as a cold front enters the Baja California Norte
and the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong SW winds
will pulse again this evening in the northern Gulf of California.
Moderate to fresh winds across the Baja offshore waters will
diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue night through Thu.
Large NW swell with seas to around 11 ft will follow the front,
and impact the offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro Mon evening
into Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo. Meanwhile, light
to gentle variable winds and moderate seas in the 4 to 6 ft
dominate the rest of the the Central America offshore waters and
the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms are across the offshore
zones of Costa Rica to Colombia.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds S
of 07N will dominate the next few days. Light to gentle variable
winds will be prevalent elsewhere along with moderate seas due
to a S swell. Otherwise, seas of 5 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos
Islands will change little well into next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends across the northern waters from 14N121W to
28N140W. Moderate N winds are noted behind the front. Otherwise,
high pressure extends across the area and is influencing the wind
flow regime. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and
relatively lower pressures from southern California to the Gulf
of California is allowing for moderate to fresh N to NE winds N
of the ITCZ and W of 110W. Seas range 5 to 8 ft within mixed
swell. South of the ITCZ, gentle and moderate winds are noted
with seas 7 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds over the western part of the
tropical waters will prevail through mid-week. Seas with these
winds will be to 8 ft and will subside by Wed. A weak cold front
will continue to move S-SE today then gradually weaken as it
moves southward across the waters N of 23N through early Mon. NW
swell following the front will impact the waters mainly N of 25W
and E of 132W by late on Wed and through Thu, bringing to 11 ft.
The swell will subside below 8 ft by Thu.

$$
AReinhart