Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
726 FXUS64 KEPZ 142352 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 552 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024 Warm conditions will continue with temperatures increasing to the mid 90s to near 100 by Sunday. A passing storm system will bring some showers and thunderstorms to mainly northern areas and mountains on Thursday. Breezy to windy conditions are expected for Sunday and, especially, Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024 S/w ridge covers the southern half of NM extending into Mexico this afternoon. Nevertheless the proximity of an UL low and some mid-level moisture is fostering some showers across the Gila, Black, and Sacramento Mountains. These will largely dissipate or move into Alburquerque`s CWA by evening. A lightning strike cannot be ruled out, but for the most part impacts will be minimal. The ridge will slide to the east while the UL low meanders over AZ. This will keep the mid-level moisture in place while keeping some favorable dynamics over the northern half of NM. A few more showers will be possible again over our mountains. On Thursday the UL low begins to move east across NM while opening up into a wave. Attendant moisture and cold pool dynamics will bring rain and thunder chances to at least the northern half of the CWA and especially our mountains. Instability will be meager along with shear, but given pattern recognition I wouldn`t be surprised by some small hail and/or gusty winds given the cold temperatures aloft and high bases. If anyone is lucky to get beneath any of these showers or thunderstorm, rainfall amounts are expected to be light. The system will also kick up breezes. The system kicks out of here Friday morning keeping us breezy on Friday. Ridging will build in its wake allowing temperatures to increase for the weekend. By Sunday, we`ll be on the western half of the ridge, allowing southwest flow to further warm our temperatures. We will be close to 100 for the first time in El Paso on Sunday. This deep southwest flow is thanks to a sharp s/w that will push across the state on Monday. GFS is more intense with this trough passage, but either way, Monday looks very warm to hot and at least breezy. If the GFS verifies, we could be looking at widespread fire concerns. The Euro`s tamer decision would keep conditions more elevated to critical. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024 VFR conditions through the period with SCT250. SCT-BKN120 until about 04Z. Surface winds southwest/west 10-13G20 knots mostly diminishing to variable AOB 7 knots after 04Z. Winds remaining west 10-12 knots along International Border. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024 No significant fire concerns anticipated for the next five days. Mountains have a low chance for dry lightning this afternoon and tomorrow, but chances for any individual location are less than 10 percent. Min RH values will be very dry for Wednesday with single digit values, but a passing system will help improve moisture for Thursday. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible as well (20-50% chance) with the highest chance in the mountains. Rainfall accumulations will be light, so isolated dry lightning cannot be ruled out. Winds for Wednesday will top out around 10 MPH but will increase to around 15 MPH for Thursday. This system exits by Friday with increasingly warm and dry conditions expected in its wake. It is a bit beyond the forecast window for fire, but Monday will be particularly warm and dry. Winds are a bit uncertain, but some guidance is forecasting widespread critical conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 66 92 65 87 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 60 86 59 81 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 57 91 57 85 / 0 0 0 20 Alamogordo 54 89 53 81 / 0 0 0 30 Cloudcroft 43 66 40 58 / 0 0 0 50 Truth or Consequences 57 87 56 78 / 0 0 0 30 Silver City 50 79 48 75 / 0 0 0 20 Deming 53 89 53 83 / 0 0 0 10 Lordsburg 52 86 52 83 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 62 89 61 84 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 54 91 56 85 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Hancock 58 93 59 88 / 0 0 0 10 Loma Linda 57 83 56 78 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 60 91 61 88 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 57 87 56 83 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 64 89 62 83 / 0 0 0 20 Jornada Range 52 89 51 82 / 0 0 0 20 Hatch 53 90 52 84 / 0 0 0 20 Columbus 60 88 58 84 / 0 0 0 10 Orogrande 55 88 55 81 / 0 0 0 20 Mayhill 47 79 45 69 / 0 0 0 50 Mescalero 47 77 44 69 / 0 0 0 60 Timberon 46 76 43 69 / 0 0 0 40 Winston 48 78 46 72 / 0 10 0 40 Hillsboro 53 85 51 78 / 0 0 0 30 Spaceport 52 87 51 81 / 0 0 0 30 Lake Roberts 45 81 43 75 / 0 10 10 30 Hurley 47 83 46 76 / 0 0 0 10 Cliff 50 86 50 81 / 0 0 0 20 Mule Creek 51 81 49 77 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 51 82 50 77 / 0 0 0 20 Animas 51 86 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 54 86 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 53 85 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 51 79 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner