Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 200546
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1146 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024
For this weekend, there will be a slight cooling trend with
isolated showers and thunderstorms focused over eastern Otero and
Hudspeth Counties on Saturday. By next week, dry and warm weather
returns to the Borderland with high temperatures several degrees
above average and breezy to windy conditions each afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with quiet
and warm weather expected through the remainder of today. Isolated
rain chances with slightly cooler temperatures return to the area
this weekend as a back door frontal boundary ebb and flows over the
Borderland.
Zonal flow regime and quiet weather has settled in across the
Borderland Region. This means warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
light afternoon breezes for the remainder of today. High
temperatures this afternoon will top out in the middle to upper 80s
for most of the El Paso metro.
For the weekend, a frontal boundary that dove south across the Great
Plains and High Plains region yesterday, infiltrated areas along and
east of the Rio Grande Valley this morning. But as we head into the
afternoon hours, the front and it`s moisture will retreat back to
the east. By tonight and into early Saturday morning, this boundary
will make another push westward roughly reaching the Continental
Divide by Saturday afternoon. Dew point temperatures will be
noticeably higher, in the 30s and 40s. This moisture coupled with an
approaching upper level shortwave will promote increased chances (20-
40 percent PoPs) of isolated showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.
These low-end rain/storm chances will be limited to eastern Otero
and Hudspeth counties where the deeper moisture values will lie.
As this boundary ebbs-and-flows across Far West TX and Southern NM,
the easterly push along and just behind this boundary will lead to
gusty winds Friday night/early Saturday morning and then again
Saturday evening/night, especially along the western slopes of area
mountains and desert sky islands.
Upper level ridging and southwesterly/westerly flow will return
early next week, drying out the low-levels across the region.
Temperatures will increase back above the seasonal average for the
first half of next week with breezy winds each afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF
sites with CIG FEW-SCT250. There will be periods of SKC. The winds
will be light (AOB 10 kts) through 18Z. The winds will then become
low-end breezy (10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 kts) while generally out
from the southwest through 00Z. They will subside thereafter. There
will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Fire weather conditions will be LOW through the weekend. Min RH
values will remain below critical thresholds (<15 percent) for areas
along and west of the Rio Grande Valley on Saturday, with further
increases in Min RH values on Sunday areawide. Low level winds will
be light to low-end breezy through this period, staying below
critical thresholds. Smoke ventilation rates will be Good to Very
Good through the weekend.
Although probabilities are low and parameters aren`t eye popping as
of now, it`s worth mentioning dry lightning could possibly pose a
threat this weekend, especially over the Sacs. Areas along and east
of the Sacramento Mtn crest have higher probabilities (20-40%) of
seeing wetting rains if storms develop. However, areas west of the
crest where guidance has a tight dew point depression gradient could
see a rogue storm or two produce isolated instances of cloud to
ground lightning. Like I said, confidence remains LOW but something
to keep an eye on over the next few days as the dryline makes an
appearance for the first time this season. Again confidence is LOW.
For next week, the region will experience a drying trend, with
warming temperatures and increasing winds each day. Elevated to near-
Critical fire weather conditions will exist Tuesday through Friday
of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 57 85 52 79 / 0 10 0 0
Sierra Blanca 50 77 45 69 / 10 10 10 0
Las Cruces 53 87 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 54 80 45 77 / 0 20 0 0
Cloudcroft 41 56 34 55 / 0 50 10 10
Truth or Consequences 53 82 50 79 / 0 10 0 0
Silver City 49 76 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 49 84 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 49 82 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 57 85 50 77 / 0 10 0 0
Dell City 48 75 44 71 / 10 10 0 0
Fort Hancock 51 86 47 79 / 10 0 0 0
Loma Linda 49 75 45 69 / 0 10 0 0
Fabens 52 86 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 51 83 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 56 83 51 77 / 0 10 0 0
Jornada Range 49 83 45 78 / 0 10 0 0
Hatch 50 86 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 55 84 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 51 79 47 74 / 0 10 0 0
Mayhill 42 60 37 64 / 0 40 10 0
Mescalero 45 66 38 67 / 0 40 10 0
Timberon 41 65 35 63 / 0 30 10 0
Winston 46 75 44 73 / 0 10 0 0
Hillsboro 49 82 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 48 82 45 78 / 0 10 0 0
Lake Roberts 44 77 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 46 79 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 49 82 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 49 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 49 79 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 49 83 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 51 83 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 50 82 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 49 77 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson