165
FNUS74 KEPZ 292316
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for UNIT 74 AREA 3 RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
516 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on April 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Very dry conditions expected through the period with afternoon RH
values dropping to around 10 percent. For Tuesday, this will
combine with afternoon winds around 10 MPH from the west with very
good vent rates. Winds increase for Wednesday to the 15 to 20 MPH
range, placing the area in near-critical fire concerns. Elevated
fire danger continues for the rest of the week.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......9700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (40900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (130500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........3      2      2      2      3
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............46     60     66     70     71
RH..............37     21     15     12     11
20 ft wind......W 7    W 8    W 9    W 9    SW 10
20 ft wind gust.9      15     18     18     20
Mix hgt (ft)....900    6500   8500   9700   9700
Transport wind..W 13   W 16   W 16   W 15   W 15
Haines index....3      3      4      5      6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..31     76     106    121    131
Ventrate Cat....POOR   GOOD   VYGD   VYGD   VYGD

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 19 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (122000 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (5100 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........5      5      5      3      3      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............70     62     53     49     46     42
RH..............11     16     24     29     34     39
20 ft wind......SW 12  SW 12  W 10   W 8    W 6    W 5
20 ft wind gust.22     22     20     15     12     10
Mix hgt (ft)....8100   1100   500    500    500    500
Transport wind..SW 19  SW 16  W 13   W 13   W 13   W 13
Haines index....6      5      4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..122    42     5      5      6      6
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   FAIR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 15 to 17 mph with gusts to around
                    32 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (47900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (196600
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........4         3         3         4
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............40        53        67        71
RH..............42        28        13        11
20 FT wind......W 5G10    SW 8G15   SW 15G25  SW 17G30
Mix hgt (ft)....1400      3400      7600      9600
Transport wind..W 14      W 14      SW 19     W 23
Haines index....3         4         5         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..18        48        115       197
Ventrate Cat....POOR      FAIR      VYGD      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 60s. West
winds around 11 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs around 70. West winds
around 9 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
Southwest winds around 9 mph.

$$
Forecaster...ARONSON
Requested by...SILVER CITY RANGER DISTRICT
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412655.1/EPZ
.DELDT 04/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV