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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 101358
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Cedar Creek RX...US Forest Service Smokey Bear RD
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
758 AM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on April 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
For today, conditions will be dry with the min RHs in the teens.
The 20ft winds will be around 10 mph and from the northwest. The
ventilation rate will be very good. Also, the temperature will be
below the normal. Tonight recovery will be good. For Thursday,
there will be a slight decrease in moisture. The 20ft winds will
continue to be light (5 to 10 mph) and variable in direction. The
ventilation rate will be very good. The temperature will increase
to above the normal. Thursday overnight recovery will be fair. For
the rest of the period, conditions will continue to be dry with
the winds breezy (15 to 20 mph) and from the southwest with the
temperatures on the warm side. The ventilation rates will be
mostly excellent.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......8400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 19 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (43700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (136100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........4      2      4      4      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............39     49     55     60     61
RH..............54     36     27     22     19
20 ft wind......NW 10  NW 11  N 10   N 10   NW 11
20 ft wind gust.14     21     22     22     21
Mix hgt (ft)....2300   6900   6900   8400   8400
Transport wind..NW 19  N 20   N 20   NW 19  NW 19
Haines index....3      3      2      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..44     123    123    136    136
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   VYGD   VYGD   VYGD   VYGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 36.
Max humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 7 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (109400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (3900 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........3      3      5      5      5      5
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............59     51     44     42     40     38
RH..............19     26     35     33     37     42
20 ft wind......NW 7   NW 7   W 3    W 3    W 3    W 2
20 ft wind gust.18     18     7      7      7      6
Mix hgt (ft)....7300   7300   500    500    500    500
Transport wind..NW 11  NW 11  NW 9   NW 9   N 8    N 8
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..109    109    4      4      4      4
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........16 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast around 6 mph
                    late in the morning, then shifting to the
                    southwest 9 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 10 mph shifting to the southwest in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (20500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (109200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........8         11        3         3
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............36        46        61        65
RH..............45        40        23        18
20 FT wind......N 3G8     SE 6G13   SW 9G18   SW 10G18
Mix hgt (ft)....2000      2000      7000      7800
Transport wind..E 10      E 10      SW 12     W 15
Haines index....3         3         4         4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..21        21        86        109
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      GOOD      VYGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
South winds around 8 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
Southwest winds around 13 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs around 70. Southwest
winds around 14 mph.

$$
Forecaster...TEXEIRA
Requested by...Sean Donaldson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410274.0/EPZ
.DELDT 04/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL sean.donaldson@usda.gov