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000
FXUS63 KFGF 212112
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
412 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very dry conditions linger through the rest of today. While
  winds remain under 25 mph, dry conditions will increase the
  potential for fires to spread rapidly.

- Fire weather concerns extend into Monday as dry air lingers
  with winds increasing, particularly in southeast North
  Dakota. There is a 50% chance for critical fire weather
  conditions in this area Monday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A very dry air mass over the region composed of dew points in
the teens with temperatures into the 60s are contributing to
relative humidity values in the teens to low twenties. Surface
ridge axis over our area this afternoon is helping keep winds
lowered in the 10-15 mph range, with gusts around 20 mph during
mid to late afternoon.

Despite winds being on the lower side under 25 mph, the very
dry air mass over our area along with presently susceptible, dry
fuels will increase the potential for fires to spread rapidly
should a fire develop. Today`s very dry conditions will further
dry available fuels Monday.

A compact shortwave trough moves across the southern Canadian
Prairie Provinces tonight and tomorrow, swinging a couple of
cold fronts through the Northern Plains. The first cold front
moves through the region from the west Monday morning. This has
meager but present mid and upper level moisture with it to help
drive light precipitation. However, very dry air in the low
levels will prevent much of this precip from reaching the
ground, resulting in virga and/or very light, brief rain
showers leading to little to no accumulation.

Behind Monday morning`s front, more dry air is advected into the
region. This along with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies
will allow daytime heating to push temperatures into the 60s
again, leading to overall RH values between 20 and 35 percent,
lowest in southeast North Dakota. Should skies remain clearer
for longer during the daytime, RH values should dip more toward
10 to 20 percent with the help of increased, deep mixing.
Efficient daytime mixing and increased winds aloft from the
passing shortwave will also aid in west winds 15 to 25, gusting
to 30 mph, perhaps a little higher given the aforementioned
deeply mixed scenario.

The combination of lingering dry air and now increased winds
(along with susceptible fuels) will drive fire weather concerns
Monday afternoon, particularly in southeast North Dakota. Here,
there is a 50% chance in critical fire weather conditions
developing Monday afternoon, and is the reason a Fire Weather
Watch is in effect.

Late Monday afternoon into evening, a second cold front moves
through the region from the northwest. Along and just behind
this front is a medium chance for rain showers and/or weak
thunderstorms. Again, dry air in the lower levels will limit
the amount of precipitation reaches the ground, with most not
seeing a wetting rain. Can`t rule out brief gusts to 45 mph
under heavier showers/weak storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

High confidence in VFR conditions across the area through Monday
morning. Winds will be generally out of the west through 00Z
turning more southwesterly between 00-09Z. Between 09-18Z, a
cold front shifts winds out of the west again. Scattered areas
of virga and/or light rain showers will accompany this frontal
passage.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for NDZ024-028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ