Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281501
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1001 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance (30%) for minor impacts Friday into Friday night due
  to snow and mixed precipitation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Sunny skies across the region today, with light winds. This is
helping bring temperatures into the 20s this morning, with highs
expected in the mid to upper 30s. Higher level clouds are moving
in on the back side of a high level ridge toward our west.
Temperatures have the potential to reach into the lower 40s this
afternoon where skies remain sunny and snow cover is limited.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

The clouds have pretty much cleared the Lake of the Woods region
now, so all areas will start the day sunny. The main surface
ridge axis is just west of the Red River Valley, where winds were
light. Temperatures were also in the single digits there. For
all other areas, speeds were still in the 5 to 10 mph range.
These will probably stay in that range through at least the rest
of the morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

The FA is currently between departing low pressure over the
eastern FA and high pressure over the western FA. Still seeing
cloud cover around the Lake of the Woods region with somewhat
breezy conditions. Meanwhile, absolutely clear skies were
observed elsewhere, with light winds across central North
Dakota. Still expect a chilly morning across the FA, but
especially west of the Red River Valley. Today will be the break
from active weather, with sunny skies and mostly light winds.
For the areas that received little new snow (the Devils Lake
region into the northern Red River Valley), afternoon humidity
levels will be low again (potentially upper 20s and lower 30s
percent). But as mentioned, wind speeds will remain low.

For tonight, clouds will begin to increase from west to east, as
winds turn back around to the southeast and pick up as well.
Precipitation associated with the next system will begin to
arrive across the Devils Lake to Valley City to Gwinner corridor
very late. This precipitation will spread across the rest of the
FA (except around the Lake of the Woods region) around or after
sunrise, but likely taking until late morning or early afternoon
in the Lake of the Woods area. The forcing for this system
continues to look pretty strong yet transient, which means there
could be good snowfall rates for about a 3-6 hour period, mainly
along and north of the highway 200 corridor. The main forcing
will be a 700mb wave, warm advection, and frontogenesis, which
lift from southwest to northeast through the FA. For the area
along and north of highway 200, NBM probabilities for 1 inch or
more of snow have increased to around 70 percent, with
probabilities for 4 inches or more up to about 30 percent. QPF
amounts for this area have also risen, to around 0.25 inches.

The other concern with this Friday into Friday night system is
mixed precipitation. 925mb temperatures around 0 work up
especially into areas along and south of the highway 200
corridor. Model soundings still show the potential for a little
freezing rain or ice pellets, just about across the entire FA.
The HREF ensemble mean precipitation type shows mainly snow, but
some pockets of freezing rain. NBM probabilities for 0.01 or
more of ice along and south of highway 200 look pretty similar
to yesterday, about 10 to 15 percent. So it looks like the
Friday morning commute for most of the FA would be affected by
this, so will increase messaging somewhat to highlight this
event. Otherwise, there was a possible second event showing up
sometime in the Saturday through Monday time frame. The FA would
remain between the stronger southern stream ejecting waves and
a weaker northern stream wave crossing southern Canada. At the
moment, precipitation chances, which were pretty low anyway,
have diminished even more. Will keep an eye on this time period,
but at this point any impacts should mainly stay to the north
and south. Otherwise, there is a warming trend on the horizon,
and the strength of the sun is noticeably stronger, so will be
slowly melting snow again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Most of this 24 hour TAF period will feature sunny skies and
fairly light surface winds. High clouds will increase from west
to east tonight as winds turn around to the southeast. Cloud
heights should lower to mid level ranges along and west of the
Valley overnight. Left any mention of precipitation out of this
set of TAFs, as somewhere around 12z Friday should be close to
the start time for at least the KDVL TAF. Later shifts can add
more detail to this.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon/Spender
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Godon


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