122
FXUS65 KFGZ 072319
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 PM MST Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Windy and dry today with seasonable temperatures.
Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected
north of the Mogollon Rim. Slightly cooler than average temperatures
are forecast through the remainder of the week along with typical
springtime breezy winds. A shift in the weather is expected over
the weekend into next week with a slight chance of rain showers
for portions of northern Arizona.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Windy conditions persist this afternoon with several
locations seeing peak wind gusts between 35 and 50 mph. In
addition to the winds, very dry conditions have lead to critical
fire weather conditions in portions of northeast Arizona. Wind
Advisories and Red Flag Warnings are in effect through 7 PM MST
this evening. Winds will begin to subside shortly after sunset,
becoming light for most areas after midnight. Outside of the
bothersome winds, the weather is mundane. Seasonal temperatures
and mostly sunny skies.

Models show an very elongated, positively tilted trough stretching
from the Central Plains through Arizona later this week. As the
original low pressure area pushes eastward, a cutoff low wants to
develop over the state, leading to cooler temperatures and unsettled
conditions. There is not a clear consensus among ensemble members
(GEFS or EPS) in regards to precipitation chances and amounts,
but at a minimum, expect increased cloud cover. As the cutoff low
hangs out over the southwest U.S., a ridge sets up our north,
created a Rex Block pattern. It is unclear how long this synoptic
pattern will persist. Breezy winds will reoccur each afternoon
with gusts between 15 and 25 mph. At this time, the best chances
for our area will initially be along the Utah border beginning
Friday afternoon (5-20%.) These rain chances will shift towards
the New Mexico border by Saturday, remaining slight (10-25%.) More
widespread activity will be possible Sunday into the start of
next week with the best chances (15-25%) likely along the Mogollon
Rim.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 08/00Z through Thursday 09/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Sfc winds W-SW15-25g30-35kts through 02Z, decreasing to
less than 10-15kts overnight. Sfc winds W-SW10-20g25kts AFT 18Z
Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 09/00Z through Saturday 11/00Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Sfc winds VRB 5-15kts in the overnight and morning hours
each day, then W-SW10-20g25kts AFT 18Z each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Thursday...Gusty southwest to west
winds and low RH values will produce Critical Fire Weather
conditions for the lower elevations north and east of the Mogollon
Rim this afternoon. Winds decrease on Wednesday and Thursday with
below average afternoon temperatures. Min RH 10 to 15 percent.

Friday through Sunday...Gradually warming temperatures through
the weekend. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph Friday morning...becoming
southwest each afternoon. Isolated showers each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004-
005-009>015-039-040.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ109-110-112>114-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mazon
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff