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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 150416
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
916 PM MST Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A strong low pressure system will allow breezy winds
and cooler temperatures to continue overnight with isolated
showers late tonight and Monday. Temperatures will warm through
the rest of the week with lighter winds. The warmest daytime
temperatures of the year so far are expected from Wednesday
through next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...While the strongest gusts have begun to subside this
evening, localized breezy southwesterlies will remain overnight,
especially along and downwind of high terrain. Winds through the
night will help prevent morning low temperatures from plummeting.
But for a few valley locations where winds are able to become
calm and the boundary layer decouples from winds aloft, expect
even colder conditions. Regardless, tomorrow is forecast to be
the coldest of the week. Expect blustery conditions all day along
with isolated showers for portions of northern Arizona. Overall,
the forecast is on track with only minor adjustments made to
follow Hi-Res guidance for winds and sky cover.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /446 PM MST/...A large area of low pressure extends
from south-central California to north-central Nevada this afternoon.
This has brought gusty winds and cooler temperatures northern
Arizona today. Winds will remain gusty into this evening then
decrease some. Most areas will continue to see breezy conditions
through the night with winds increasing again on Monday and
becoming more westerly to northwesterly. Moisture will increase
over northern Arizona through Monday with isolated showers late
tonight and Monday. A thunderstorm or two are not out of the question
late Monday morning into Sunday evening...north of I-40. Moisture
is limited with this system so significant rainfall/high elevation
snow is not expected. Daytime temperatures will drop Monday another
5 to 10 degrees from today.

The trough of low pressure will move east of the area on Tuesday
with daytime temperatures rebounding rather quickly, about 10
degrees warmer than Monday. We will continue to see daytime temperatures
warm through the week...with some of the warmest temperatures of
the year so far by Wednesday...through next weekend. Winds will be
generally light on Tuesday...then southwest breezes (10-20 MPH)
each afternoon into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 15/00Z through Tuesday 16/00Z...Predominantly
VFR conditions through the period. SW winds gusting 25-35 kts
persisting until ~02Z, then gradually decreasing overnight. Winds
won`t totally decouple tonight though. Winds increasing again
after 16Z Monday, becoming more westerly. A few isolated showers
are possible after 18Z Monday, which could produce brief MVFR
conditions.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 16/00Z through Thursday 17/00Z...VFR conditions
through the extended period. Any isolated shower activity from
Monday afternoon won`t persist into the extended period. Much
lighter, westerly winds for Tuesday, becoming SW Wednesday and
increasing slightly with winds 10-20G15-30kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday through Tuesday...Cooler temperatures Monday,
with isolated convective showers during the afternoon. Winds Monday
turning more westerly, 15 to 25 mph, with gusts from 30 to 40 mph
over the eastern zones. Turning warmer and dry Tuesday, with west
through southwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday through Friday...Turning much warmer and dry, with west
through southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mazon/MAS
AVIATION...RKR
FIRE WEATHER...RKR/Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff