451
FXUS65 KFGZ 271724
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1024 AM MST Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move
across northern Arizona today, with high elevation snow likely.
Gusty conditions will accompany any showers or storms through this
evening. Warm and dry weather returns on Sunday and for much of
the coming week.

&&

.UPDATE...Snow showers last night delivered significant
accumulations in parts of northern Arizona, although impacts were
highly localized. For example, 6 to 12 inches of snow fell in the
Williams to Bellemont corridor, while only a couple inches fell in
Flagstaff. No accumulation was reported in Doney Park.
Temperatures are high enough that most of the roads across the
region are in good shape. Expect conditions to generally improve
today as temperatures continue to rise. Lots of melting will
occur. Redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms are still
expected, but additional accumulations of snow are not forecast
across the populated areas. A couple updates were made to the
grids this morning but the message remains the same.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /357 AM MST/...A low pressure center was spinning
over northeast Arizona during the morning hours, heading to the
northeast. Ample moisture wrapped within the low was producing
widespread precipitation across the northland, mainly in the form
of snow above 6500 feet. As the low continues to slowly move
eastward today expect rain and snow showers to continue with the
main focus from the Mogollon Rim northward. As daytime heating
progresses the atmosphere will destabilize with scattered
thunderstorms developing. The snow level will gradually rise
through the day climbing into the 7500 to 8500 feet range by late
this afternoon as a milder air mass moves in behind the low.
However, in heavier showers/thunderstorms the snow level could
temporarily dip lower especially with any graupel showers. By late
in the afternoon we should see diminishing shower activity along
and west of a Flagstaff to Page line as drier air moves in behind
the low but with showers continuing into the evening to the east
of this line.

Starting Sunday and through the coming week...The low heads
eastward and out of the state. Behind the low a mild and dry
westerly flow will develop and hang across Arizona through the
week. Look for mainly clear skies, high temperatures warming to
seasonal averages and daily afternoon west to southwest breezes at
10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. We`re heading back to our more
typical spring weather regime.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 27/18Z through Sunday 28/18Z...Periods of
IFR/MVFR CIGS and VIS in ISO/SCT -SHSN/SHRA. ISO/SCT TSRA
possible, mainly along and east of KFLG-KPAN line. Widespread VFR
returns by 03Z. Mainly W-SW winds 20-30 kts. Stronger winds 30-40
kts along a KINW-KJTC line.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 28/18Z through Tuesday 30/18Z...VFR conditions
with mostly clear skies expected for Sunday and Monday. W-NW
winds 15-25 kts on Sunday, becoming SW 15-25 kts on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Sunday...Rain and snow/ice pellet
showers with scattered, afternoon thunderstorms are expected for
today. Temperatures will remain cool with daytime highs forecast to
be 10 to 15 degrees below average. Drier and warmer conditions
return on Sunday with minimum humidity of 15 to 25%. Anticipate
westerly winds, 20 to 30 mph, for today, followed by lighter west-
northwest winds, 15 to 25 mph, on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...A warming and drying trend continues
through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be seasonal for the end of
April with widespread minimum humidity of 10 to 20% each afternoon.
Daytime southwest winds will remain breezy, 15 to 25 mph, for Monday
and Tuesday, becoming stronger, 25 to 35 mph, on Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Benji/McCollum
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff