Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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633 FXUS63 KGID 092058 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 358 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - below-normal precipitation totals are favored through the next 1-2 weeks. - Only spotty showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm are expected through this evening. Nearly the entire area will stay dry. - Better chances for thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. The threat for severe weather appears to be fairly low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Visible satellite shows pretty extensive cumulus development this afternoon, and the regional radar mosaic shows a few returns over northern Nebraska gradually moving southward. These isolated showers may reach northern portions of the area late this afternoon before gradually diminishing in the evening with loss of diurnal heating. There is enough instability (100J/kg) for a rumble of thunder or two, but severe weather is not expected. If anything, the latest runs of near-term models are even less impressed with the coverage/intensity of this activity reaching into our area. Nearly everyone will stay dry, and even areas that do see rain likely will not see more than 0.05". The pattern remains stagnant on Friday, with continued northwesterly surface winds and temperatures only a few degrees warmer than today. A cutoff upper low will remain stalled over the western CONUS as another shortwave skirts by to our northwest Friday evening. Another round of spotty showers cannot be ruled out, but the probability/impact is too low to add anything into the forecast at this point. The daytime of Saturday will be warm, dry and pleasant, but the aforementioned upper low will slowly begin to break down down and eject into the central Plains late Saturday night into Sunday. This will bring us a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially Sunday afternoon into the evening. That said, deep-layer shear is expected to be quite limited, so the overall threat for severe weather remains pretty low. Highest rain totals favor portions of Kansas, but exact details remain quite uncertain. Some activity could redevelop as this system slowly departs the area on Monday, and additional chances for rain and storms arrive with another shortwave trough Tuesday into Wednesday. Despite all of these rain chances, global ensembles all show near to below-normal precipitation totals through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Expect northwesterly winds through the period. Afternoon winds are expected to gust into the low 20s today and tomorrow. Only the NAM has the 025-030 cloud layer moving into the TAF sites this afternoon. Upstream is showing BKN-OVC, but satellite trends shows the clouds thinning as they move south. Decided to put a SCT030 layer for now and will watch and see how the clouds evolve this afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Beda