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000
FXUS63 KGLD 160748
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
148 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated severe storm is possible late this evening into
  tonight, mainly along and east of Highway 283 until ~1 AM CDT,
  at which point ongoing thunderstorms are anticipated to exit
  the NWS Goodland county warning area.

- Strong northwesterly winds are expected over much of the area
  on Tuesday, strongest in eastern CO and adjacent KS/NE border
  counties where sustained winds at 30-45 mph and gusts up to 65
  mph are anticipated. Wind of this magnitude will create
  dangerous travel conditions, especially for high profile
  vehicles. Reductions in visibility associated with blowing
  dust (where present) will locally exacerbate dangerous travel
  conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1228 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Based on the current radar coverage for the CWA, have opted to
cancel the Tornado Watch for eastern zones. Still expect some
strong storms to possibly occur through 12z, the tornado threat
has diminished for the CWA as the line of storms associated with
the dry line/cold front has exited the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Latest satellite imagery shows a clear sky over the forecast
area. However just to the east cumulus clouds are beginning to
form east of the dry line which runs south from McCook to
Oberlin and Hoxie. Thunderstorms may begin to form north of the
forecast area along the dry line. However that threat should
remain north of the forecast area until late evening.

Red flag warning continues to verify for the southwest half of
the forecast area. The higher dew points near the dry line to
the east are preventing the RH from falling as much as it is the
west.

The blowing dust threat should gradually diminish through the
afternoon. There have been some reports of reduced visibility in
the blowing dust down to a mile or so. Do not foresee this
becoming any worse. The winds will decline during the early
evening as they turn to the west.

Focus then shifts to tonight for the severe weather. Latest data
continues to increase confidence of rapidly intensifying storms
forming over Graham/Norton counties before midnight. Soundings
indicate the storms should be surface based along the dry line,
which will increase the threat for tornadoes to form. The CAPE
profile and shear are very supportive of large hail or even
giant hail. Storms that develop will be moving north at 40 MPH
or so. Storm should begin around 10 PM CT.

The severe threat should shift east of Norton/Graham counties by
3 AM CT as the dry line moves east of these counties. However
this will likely happen sooner due.

Before sunrise Tuesday the cold front will move through. This
should be signaled by winds turning to the west. Behind the
front winds will turn to the northwest and increase. By Tuesday
morning wind gusts around 60 MPH are expected. The peak wind
gusts will occur during the early afternoon. The winds will
decline during the latter half of the afternoon as the upper
level trough shifts east of the forecast area.

In addition to the increasing winds, rainfall should move into
the forecast area from the northwest. The latest forecast is
less optimistic than from last night, thus lowering confidence
that much of the forecast area will receive rainfall. At this
time, Yuma County area has the best chance for rainfall. Lift
declines to the east and south of Yuma County.

Along with the high winds will be blowing dust. What complicates
this is rainfall. wherever there is enough rain to wet the
ground there should be little to no blowing dust. Elsewhere
blowing dust should occur. Looking at the GFS, which is the
model of choice for blowing dust, the most favorable area for
blowing dust will be generally south of I-70. This is where
lapse rates are the most favorable and where there is the least
chance for rainfall. To the north the lapse rates become less
favorable for blowing dust, along with rain happening at some
point.

Regarding the high wind potential decided to upgrade all but
three counties. Am not sure at this time how far east the high
winds will extend from CO. Used probability for gusts of 60 MPH,
along with looking at the 75th and 90th percentiles to
determine where high winds would be the most likely to occur.
The strongest winds will be over East Central CO. Strongest
winds in general will be during the early afternoon on Tuesday.
Tuesday evening the winds will lighten as the upper level trough
shifts to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 148 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Generally upper-level zonal flow will dominate the Tri-State area
through Saturday. Diurnal shortwaves give locations along and north
of I-70 ~30%+ PoPs through Saturday. The persistent cloud cover and
light winds will keep temperatures a bit cooler than we`ve seen over
the past few days. Through Friday, maximum temperatures will remain
in the 50s with Saturday remaining in the 40s. Overnight
temperatures will cool into the upper 20s to mid 30s. These
temperatures combined with the PoPs are expected to lead to
rain/snow showers, mainly Friday. Flurries could be seen along and
northwest of a line from Norton, KS to Wallace, KS. Accumulation of
snow is not expected due to the light QPF and how warm soil
temperatures have recently gotten. Patchy black ice is possible
(<10% chance) Saturday morning, mainly in east/northeastern Colorado.

Sunday, a ridge will begin building in and temperatures will quickly
start warming again. 60s on Sunday then 70s on Monday and Tuesday
are expected. After Saturday night, temperatures are expected to
remain above freezing. There are some suggestions of more light
showers Monday evening and Tuesday, but confidence is not very
high.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

..Hazardous Aviation Conditions assoc/w Strong Winds..

WNW-NW winds at 20-30 knots will weaken overnight, however.. NW
winds are anticipated to dramatically increase after sunrise
Tuesday morning.. first at GLD (~13-15Z) followed by MCK
(~16-18Z).. possibly reaching 30-40 knots with gusts up to 55
knots during the late morning and afternoon hours -- Note:
this would be similar in magnitude to the system that affected
the region on Sunday April 07). Reductions in visibility
associated with blowing dust are possible at the GLD terminal
during the day on Tuesday, while sub-VFR conditions associated
with low ceilings/showers are possible at the MCK terminal.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...High Wind Warning from 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning to 7
    PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-
     027>029-041-042.
CO...High Wind Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ090>092.
NE...High Wind Warning from 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning to 7
    PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...BV