Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 161504
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1104 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Marine/Hydro

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

An area of high pressure in the Middle Mississippi Valley will
build east today and into the Central Appalachians for tonight. As
a result the weather here in Michigan today  will feature
diminishing clouds and showers followed by a warming trend as we
go into Tuesday. Unseasonably mild weather will then prevail for
much of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

The main challenge in the short term deals with the potential for
showers. I ended up increasing POPs this morning.

Satellite imagery shows abundant clouds across the CWA to start
the day. Additional clouds in WI are tracking east and are colder
than -15 deg C...thus some ice likely exists in those clouds. We
currently have light showers around the region...plus the airmass
is cold enough for lake enhanced moisture. Those clouds that are
in WI headed our way may keep the showers going here in wrn MI as
they pick up some of the lake moisture this morning. Thus I did
feature low POPs for the morning for much of the CWA...followed
by a dry afternoon and skies clearing out.

The pressure gradient tightens up tonight as warm air advection
strengthens. This will support moderating temperature as we go
through the remainder of the short term period. Well above normal
temperatures are likely to return to the region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Fair wx will continue Wednesday night through Saturday. Temperatures
will continue to undergo a slow gradual moderating trend due to
continued south to sw flow warm air advection and an amplifying
upper level ridge over our region late in the week in conjunction
with moderating h8 temps.

High temperatures late in the week will easily reach the upper 60`s
to lower 70`s and could even reach well into the 70`s by
Friday/Saturday. This will be at least ten to fifteen degrees above
normal for this time of year.

A consensus of latest medium range guidance continues to suggest
that a weak cold front will bring the next chance for showers by
Sunday. Temperatures will be a little cooler behind that system for
early next week but should still average a little above normal for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 625 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Mostly VFR clouds around the area to start the day will gradually
break up as we go into the afternoon. There were some patches of
MVFR ceilings to start the day. There could be some icing in the
clouds...mainly this morning.

The wind tonight is expected to be high enough to limit the fog
risk.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1104 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

We issued a Small Craft Advisory for the period beginning later
this evening, and lasting through Wednesday as of now. This will
likely need to be extended at some point as the stronger wind
lasts into Thursday. This wind is a result of the difference
between high pressure to our South, and a strong system across
Central Canada. We will remain dry and sunny through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1104 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Rivers seem to be cresting lower than expected. Most likely
relatively dry soil, low inland lake levels, and fairly low river
level base states (due to abnormally dry weather the past few
months) have mitigated many of the impacts. Some impacts still
remain in southern Van Buren and western Kalamazoo counties where
rain totals ranged between 6 and 9 inches. Roughly 10 roads were
closed due to flooding in southern Van Buren and some may have been
washed out. The Paw Paw and Black Rivers are running high, perhaps
out of banks in spots, but appear to be cresting today. Dry weather
the rest of this week will allow rivers to subside.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ



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