Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 251201
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
701 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Colder weather along with snow showers can be expected into this
evening. Snow and blowing snow will reduce visibility at times
near Lake Michigan through the afternoon. The snow will taper off
to flurries tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Will leave the Winter Weather Advisory as is. Snow accums only
expected to be 1 to 3 inches in the advisory area, but
visibilities could be reduced by snow and blowing snow as winds
gust to 30 mph at times through the afternoon.

Deformation axis shifts east and sfc ridging builds in tonight
with snow ending. Quick hitting clipper follows for Sunday
afternoon and evening with an inch or two of snow possible across
the northern zones.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Temperatures will get steadily colder through the period, beginning
with highs Tuesday in the lower 50s and ending with highs in the mid
30s Friday.

South flow ahead of the next system will push temps into the lower
50s Tuesday. We`re likely to see some rain too as both the ecmwf and
gfs show pcpn moving north. The low, which is in Kansas Tuesday
morning, will move northeast to Lower Michigan Tuesday night. Looks
like a rainy night, although some wet snow may mix in with the rain
over the northern cwa. Both models show a second wave moving
northeast along the frontal boundary. This will result in more rain
Wednesday before colder air advect southeast across the cwa
Wednesday night. Wednesday night h8 temps fall from -6c to -12c and
we should see some lake effect snow showers develop. There may be a
brief lull Thursday afternoon as slightly warmer air advects in from
the southwest ahead of a clipper, but then another surge of colder
air will move in and h8 temps fall to around -18c by Friday. The
main change to the grids was to add more snow showers and less rain
showers Thursday-Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 701 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Areas of IFR can be expected in snow showers into this afternoon
then conditions should improve to VFR this evening as the snow
tapers off. Northwest to west winds will gust over 20 knots today
then decrease to 10 knots or less tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

Gale Warning was left in place until 2 pm. It may be replaced with
a Small Craft Advisory or the Gale Warning may have to be
extended as conditions will be marginal for gales through Sunday.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1237 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Widespread rainfall overnight will produce rises on area rivers
over the next few days. Rainfall was generally one quarter to one
half inch...with amounts in excess of one inch across northern
portions of Lower Michigan. Current forecasts keep all rivers
below flood stage...but additional rainfall today could produce
stronger rises. Heaviest rain today should fall over southern
sections of Lower Michigan...which received less rainfall
overnight.

Colder temperatures return for the weekend...with a series of storm
systems bringing additional precipitation to the region this week.
While temperatures are not expected to be cold enough for ice
formation on rivers...the additional precipitation could cause
slower recession or additional rises on area rivers.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for MIZ037-
     038-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...Gale Warning until 2 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Ostuno
HYDROLOGY...MWS
MARINE...Ostuno



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