Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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566
FXUS63 KGRR 142029
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES. IT WILL BE SLIGHT MILDER MONDAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR FREEZING. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLDER. A
STRONG SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL BRING RAIN AND TEMPERATURES PUSHING
NEAR 50 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE NOT AIMED AT
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
SOME WARMER AIR RIDES OVER THE COLDER SURFACE AIR. THAT WILL BRING
THE LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO SEE
EVEN AN INCH OF SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. THE AREAS SOUTH OF I-94 HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE AN INCH OF SNOW. GIVEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE TEENS THERE STILL MAY BE SOME MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES MONDAY
MORNING BUT AT THIS POINT I SEE NO NEED FOR ANY SORT OF HEADLINE.


THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY...THAT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF RETURN TO COOLER AIR MID WEEK. THIS
MAY BRING US MORE LIGHT SNOW... BUT AGAIN ANY SNOW FROM THIS WILL
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.




.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY...ERODING ANY LAKE EFFECT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WINDS I LOWERED
THE WED NIGHT MINS.  I ALSO LOWERED THURSDAY/S HIGH AS WE WILL ONLY
JUST BEGIN TO WARM ADVECT AND WILL LIKELY NOT SCOUR OUT THE SHALLOW
COLD AIR.

HOWEVER AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BE IN FULL FORCE AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE
OVERNIGHT. H8 TEMPS AROUND +5C REACH US BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S.  ALONG WITH THE UNSEASONABLE WARM PUSH WILL
COME PCPN AS THE GULF OPENS UP FOR ABUNDANT MOISTURE HEADING INTO
MI.  SINCE WE SHOULD STRUGGLE TO SCOUR OUT THE SHALLOW COLD
AIR...MAINTAINED THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.  BUT IT
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN BY FRIDAY EXPECT FOR THE INTERIOR NE...WHICH
SHOULD ALSO SWITCH OVER TO RAIN BY MID DAY.  A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE RAIN OUT...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH.

WE COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH THE FLOW GOING ZONAL...IT
STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 40.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AN AREA OF
SNOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND MVFR WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR WILL DEVELOP. THIS SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE 02-04Z AND
LINGER THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY...SO THE VARIABLE CONDITIONS...
FROM MVFR TO IFR...WILL CONTINUE. THE SNOW SHOULD END TOWARD THE
END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AROUND 18Z MONDAY.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THERE WILL BE NO NEED FOR MARINE HEADLINES. THAT
WILL LIKELY CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD AIR
COMES BACK IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. RIVERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE LARGELY STABLE...ALTHOUGH WE WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS FOR RAPID FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO
ICE JAMMING. ICE FORMATION AND JAMMING IS STILL A CONCERN GIVEN THE
COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TONIGHT...BUT HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH SHOULD HALT ICE
FORMATION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THIS WEEK...TOO WARM FOR ICE TO
THICKEN. RIVERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ABLE TO FLOW FREELY.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM



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