Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRR 170024
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
824 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder Temperatures with Light Snow Into Monday

- Clipper Monday Night/Tuesday

- Chance of Light Mixed Precip Thursday/Friday and Early Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

- Colder Temperatures with Light Snow Into Monday

The initial round of showers has moved to an area mainly along
and south of a Kalamazoo to St. Johns line. Expect this area of
showers gradually shift southeast this afternoon and evening as
the mid level front clears the area. Behind the mid level front
850 winds will become a little lighter, but still breezy with
northwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph into Sunday with the highest
gusts along the lakeshore. The continuation of these breezy winds
is due to decent low level lapse rates allowing for mixing aloft.
These low level lapse rates may also aid in the development of
light showers tonight into Sunday morning with the cold air
advecting in. Moisture is not that great so would expect
precipitation to be light. With the colder temperatures moving in
behind the front we will see a transition from rain showers to
snow showers. Little to no accumulation is expected into Sunday
morning.

The better spread in 850 mb and lake surface temperatures does not
really set up until Sunday night with differences around 17
degrees. Looking at the lake effect set up some light
accumulations will be possible along the lakeshore into Monday
morning. Those that see bands set up overhead will have the
potential for a couple of inches which could result in impacts to
the Monday morning commute.

- Clipper Monday Night/Tuesday

A fast moving clipper system will move through the area overnight
Monday into Tuesday afternoon. The greatest chance for light snow
will be within our northeast CWA in Clare, Osceola, and Isabella
Counties where a few tenths of an inch may fall. Snow will come to
an end Tuesday afternoon, then dry weather prevails through
Wednesday and part of Thursday.

- Chance of Light Mixed Precip Thursday/Friday and Early Next Week

The next chance for precipitation looks to be late this week into
early next week. Ensemble members narrow in on precip chances
Thursday evening to Friday evening with a brief shortwave, then
additional precip into early next week with another surge of energy.
There doesn`t seem to be much agreement on amounts, timing, and
precipitation type, but there does seem to be general agreement that
the late extended period looks wetter.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Bands of showers continues to move through lower Michigan
overnight into Sunday. Gusty winds will continue through the
first half of the evening with winds decreasing around 06Z.
Ceilings stay VFR through the forecast period. Winds will increase
again between 10Z to 15Z Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Gusty southwest winds will turn to the northwest behind the front
tonight. This will continue to push high waves onshore likely
through Monday. Periods of hazardous conditions for small craft
then continue until the second half of next week where winds
become lighter and more easterly.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thielke/RAH
AVIATION...Ceru
MARINE...RAH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.