Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 151916
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
216 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN MISSOURI WILL TRACK
THROUGH MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA BY LATE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAY
TIME HOURS OF TUESDAY. THEN THE COLD FRONT... THAT TRAILS THE
SYSTEM... CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THAT WILL CHANGE
THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND WEST OF US-131 WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL TURN COLDER THEN WITH HIGHS NEAR 30 ON
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THAT
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TROUGH
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE KANSAS LOW AS IT
MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN ARC OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA
NORTH ACROSS MISSOURI AND WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW IN KANSAS.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND CROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING TO LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS
NEAR -12C MOVE OVER THE LAKE BY WEDNESDAY BUT WE WON/T BE LOOKING AT
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A VERY LIMITED
DGZ. MOISTURE DEPTH FALLS TO AROUND 4K FT WEDNESDAY WITH THE DGZ
LIMITED TO THE VERY TOP OF THAT LAYER.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH AREAS OF FOG AS THE
LOW GETS CLOSER. HIGHS WILL MAKE A RUN AT 50 BEFORE TEMPS FALL
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY THEN
SURFACE RIDGING GENERALLY PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY. A SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION OVER THE WEEKEND COULD PRODUCE A
BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LWR MI INCLUDING THE I-94
CORRIDOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

MIXED LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO PRIMARILY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CIGS
AND PATCHY FOG AND AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE AT ALL THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY DUE TO LOW
CIGS/VISBYS.

SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SE
TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE SW TO WEST LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

WE WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD AIR COMES BACK IN INCREASING WINDS
TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR. AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEAR
BY OFFICES WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING HEADLINES FOR THIS
EVENT JUST YET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

NO HYDRO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. LIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND SPREAD NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WHICH WON`T HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS. STREAMFLOW ON ALL RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
IS CURRENTLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...WDM






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