Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 031731
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
131 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WHICH IS POSSIBLE ON
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY FROM
AROUND 80 TODAY...TO THE LOWER 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY TO THE MIDDLE
80S ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIVES EAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FAIR
SUMMER WEATHER. THE MAIN FOCUS WAS ON WHETHER OR NOT TO KEEP THE
SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ON THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...SLIDING INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING
AROUND PEAK HEATING. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVERGENCE ON
IT IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH A POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE GFS INDICATES A BULLSEYE OF CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR MT PLEASANT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE PULLING
AWAY FROM LAKE HURON INTO ONTARIO IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT...STILL FEEL
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN A 20 PCT CHC OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON THE FOURTH.

OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER THAT AFFECTS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. ANY PRECIP WILL
BE WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE UNTIL A FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE FRONT ARRIVES A BIT QUICKER...PROBABLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  CLIMATICALLY THIS IS NOT A FAVORABLE TIME FOR SEVERE
STORMS...SO IF THIS VERIFY WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT PROCEEDS THE
FRONT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SE CWA MID
DAY TUESDAY IF THIS TIMING HOLDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  IT APPEARS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
TRAVELING ALONG IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  AREAS SOUTH OF I-
96 COULD SEE MORE RAIN MOVE IN...DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT THE TERMINALS WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT PREFERENCE TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE EXCEPTION IS MKG...WHICH IS SEEING
ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE BREEZE.

LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A SHIFT TO GENERALLY
LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LIGHT WIND REGIME IS IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LONE
ADVISORY AT HOLT ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE BELOW
ITS BANKS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THERE IS MINIMAL THREAT FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LATE
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECTED AMOUNTS ARE RATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER
CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE


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