Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 222007
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
308 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine/Hydro

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

A tranquil weather pattern will continue through the holiday
travel period. No major weather systems will affect the area
through the weekend. After today temperatures will be seasonably
mild for this time of year and reach the 40`s on Thanksgiving Day
and around fifty degrees Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 308 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Short term fcst concerns remain minimal. Dry wx will continue
tonight for the vast majority of our fcst area. A few warm air
advection very light snow showers and flurries will develop near
to mainly north of KMKG during the early morning hours Thursday
through around midday Thursday but with no snow accumulation or
impacts to travel.

A weak frontal boundary will bring a few light rain showers and
sprinkles late Friday through Friday evening mainly north of I-96.
Dry wx will continue Friday night near to south of I-96. After
tonight temperatures will be seasonably mild and reach the lower
to middle 40`s for Thanksgiving Day and into the upper 40`s to
lower 50`s Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

The long term period will start off with mid level trough tracking
through the forecast area on Saturday.  Given the passage of this
system...there could be some light precipitation around...especially
north.  The DGZ looks unsaturated so...will need to monitor
temperatures to start the day.

Then for Sunday through Monday...steady mid level  heights occur as
a ridge moves.  Subsidence will act to limit any precipitation
potential.  A warming trend will occur as deeper southwest flow
develops.  Well above normal temperatures look likely.

Then for Tuesday into Wednesday...mid level heights start to fall
off as a Pacific trough builds east and crosses the Rockies.  Some
differences in the models exist as far the track and strength of
this system.  The GFS has one mid level trough tracking and
associated cold front through by Wednesday.  The High Res Euro keeps
some of the energy further southwest and would support a deeper
storm arriving for the Wed to Thu period.  Will keep the mention of
showers in the forecast and trend temperatures down into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

As an area of high pressure builds off to the southeast today and
tonight...a southwest flow will develop for the TAF sites. Overall
the pattern looks to feature VFR cloud cover for much of the time.
Light precipitation looks possible later tonight mainly north of
KMKG.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

A small craft advisory has been issued for late tonight through
late Thursday afternoon as southwest winds will increase and cause
wave heights to reach sca criteria. In addition a gale watch has
also been hoisted from early Friday morning through late Friday
evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 308 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

A few river flood advisories remain in effect but water levels
will slowly fall through the rest of the week and weekend as
no significant precipitation is forecast through the weekend into
early next week.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening for
     LMZ844>849.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM EST Thursday
     for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Laurens
SHORT TERM...Laurens
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...Laurens
MARINE...Laurens


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