Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 130730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
330 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Quiet weather conditions are forecast today due to high pressure
situated over the Great Lakes region. An increase of high clouds
will be noted this afternoon with high temperatures up around 80
degrees. A few light showers are possible Monday afternoon although
most areas look to stay dry. Highs will be near 80 once again on
Monday. Another mainly dry day is forecast on Tuesday with a
developing warm front off to our southwest. Highs on Tuesday will
push into the lower 80s. Overall fairly seasonable weather for this
time of year.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

High pressure will bring fair weather today and tonight, with an
increase in high cloud with time through Monday morning. Expecting a
mostly sunny day today, but there will be increasing high clouds in
the afternoon. A well defined upper shortwave trough can be seen in
the water vapor imagery this morning stretching from the Northern
Plains south into Nebraska. Showers are associated with the
shortwave at this time well off to our west. We will stay dry
through Monday morning with high pressure in place across the Great

The surface high slips away to the east on Monday allowing a weak
surface trough associated with the upper wave to approach. Have
blended in with neighboring offices showing small chances for light
rain showers Monday afternoon, but would not be surprised to see us
stay dry. Have 20 pops in the forecast Monday afternoon.

Monday night into Tuesday the surface trough washes out with a
developing warm front to our southwest. Similar reasoning in both of
these forecast periods as well, small pops in the forecast to
maintain consistency with neighboring offices. Thinking the bulk of
this time frame will be dry as well. An increase in cloud cover will
be associated with the shortwave aloft through especially Monday and
Monday night. Highs will be around 80 today, Monday and Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

The high pressure ridge will continue in control of the wx pattern
Tuesday night before southerly flow brings warmer and more humid
weather Wednesday. A warm front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday with a better chance for thunderstorms
Wednesday night into early Thursday with the sfc low and cold front.

A slightly cooler and less humid airmass will gradually move in
behind that system very late in the week. However a northern stream
upper level disturbance and weak sfc low pressure system will bring
potential for more scattered showers and storms late Friday into


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1130 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

VFR conditions will continue at all the terminals through the next
24 hours with clear skies overnight through Sunday morning. We
expect few-sct fair wx cumulus clouds to develop Saturday
afternoon at most of the terminals with cloud bases at 4-5 kft
agl. The exception to this is at KMKG where skies should remain
mostly clear. VFR conditions will continue through Sunday evening
with wind speeds aob 10 kts.


Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Waves continue to subside this morning with the Port Sheldon and
South Haven buoys measuring 1 footers and the Cook Nuclear Buoy off
of Bridgman indicating 3 footers. High pressure moving in today will
result in light winds with a further dampening out of the waves. We
are essentially looking at waves of less than one foot from this
morning right into Tuesday. So after a wavy Saturday the next three
days (Today-Mon-Tues) look quite nice on the big lake.


Issued at 1112 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

There are no hydro concerns at this time.

Rivers are running well within their banks. Limited chances for
rain exist today. Mainly dry conditions are anticipated up through
midweek, when our next chance for any measurable rain moves in.




LONG TERM...Laurens
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