Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 290730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN MORE COMFORTABLE LESS HUMID AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

 &&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND TWO INCHES MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUSPECT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING ACROSS SW LWR MI AS
MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IMPACTS IOWA AND ILLINOIS.

OUR BEST PROSPECTS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 WHERE SB CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE
PROGGED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RUC FCST SNDGS EXHIBIT STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SFC TO 3 KM AROUND 8.5C NEAR JXN.  BASED ON
THE HIGH PWAT VALUES OF UP TO 2.25 INCHES WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OF
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED
WET MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST 18Z-22Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AND FALLING SFC DEW PTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY ONCE DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES.
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL POPS MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED IN LATER FCSTS AS NEXT WEAK FRONT/TROUGH DROPS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
REGARD TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN THROUGH SAT...BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE FRI NIGHT AND SAT TIME
FRAME FOR NOW. WE WILL SEE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRI SLIP SE OF THE AREA FRI EVENING. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER DEVELOPING NEAR THIS FRONT...HOWEVER THE
CHC IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FCST FOR THE TIME BEING. A
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE FRI FRONT WILL ONLY DIMINISH BY SAT AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT. THERE IS NOT REALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND
THIS...SO WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE CHCS OF RAIN DOES GO UP ON SUN...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON TUE. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING CENTERED WELL NORTH IN CANADA. WE WILL SEE
THE JET CORE DROP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
HELPING THIS CAUSE. BEING CLOSER TO THE JET...WE WILL HAVE MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SHORT WAVES TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA. WE
WILL ALSO SEE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE TO
BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR RAIN. EXACT TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS IS USUAL IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS.

TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE TOO BAD IN THIS PATTERN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE...NORTH OF
THE JET CORE. WE WILL SEE AVERAGE TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR OUR AREA. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS WITH THE 06Z FCST IS THE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS WITH A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY.

WE HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A COUPLE POP UP SHOWERS NEAR KMKG FOR THE
FIRST HOUR OF THE VALID FCST PERIOD. THESE WILL PRODUCE SOME LOCAL
MVFR IN RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KMKG...BUT WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY
AND WILL LIKELY NOT HIT THE OTHER SITES.

WE EXPECTED A SCT LINE OF SHOWERS TO FORM WEST OF THE AREA TOWARD
12Z AND THEN SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. NOT SURE ALL OF THE
SITES WILL BE DIRECTLY HIT...SO WE HAVE USED A VCSH TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL. IF A SITE GETS HIT BY A SHOWER...SOME MVFR OR EVEN
BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD BE STORMS
TOWARD KLAN AND KJXN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EVERYTHING MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA BY AROUND 22Z.

SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT/SHOWERS.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THIS SITUATION COULD ALSO
SUPPORT BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT
WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL ATTRACTIVE BEACH CONDITIONS
SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH BEACH POPULATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER A
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...MEADE


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