Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 150715
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
315 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight Chance Of Showers Saturday

- Colder with Chance Of Snow Showers Sunday/Monday

- Temps Remain Below Normal Mid To Late Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

- Slight Chance Of Showers Saturday

A cold front will move in from the northwest Saturday afternoon.
Moisture with this system looks quite limited so there is just a
slight chance of a light rain shower. Dry wx will prevail for the
vast majority of the day and many locations will not receive any
measurable rainfall with this system.

- Colder with Chance Of Snow Showers Sunday/Monday

An upper trough will settle over our region Sunday/Monday as H8 temps
plummet to around -10 to -12 C by early Sunday evening and -12 to
-13 C Monday. This will result in increasing lake induced instability
 resulting in lake effect snow showers both Sunday and Monday.

Light snow accumulations on the order of an inch or less are
expected from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon in our
favored nw flow snow belt regions and areas mainly west of
US-131.

- Temps Remain Below Normal Mid To Late Next Week

The upper trough will move east of our region Tuesday as the upper
pattern gradually becomes more zonal for mid to late week. However
temperatures will continue to average around 5 to 10 degrees below
normal for this time of year mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

MKG already is VFR and expected to stay that way. At the remaining
terminals, fuel alternate ceilings (cigs) between 1000 and 2000
ft are expected to lift above 2000 ft around or shortly after 12Z
and then disappear by 18Z. Guidance is pretty consistent with this
scenario, although brief excursions into IFR with cigs just below
1000 feet are not out of the question around 12Z.

On a side note, the current Turbulence SIGMET that includes much
of Lower Michigan is strikingly supported by water vapor satellite
imagery that shows a succession of east-northeastward moving
waves in the mid/upper level flow associated with the upper jet
stream. It`s uncommon to see this as clearly as we`re seeing it
now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

North winds will back to the northwest this afternoon but remain
fairly light at around 5 to 15 kts. Winds will continue to back
to the southwest overnight and begin to ramp up toward daybreak
Saturday. Marine headlines will be needed from early Saturday
morning through the rest of the day.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laurens
AVIATION...TJT
MARINE...Laurens


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