Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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275
FXUS63 KGRR 022229
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
629 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTERIOR SECTION OF THE LOWER PENINSULA. OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A COOL AND SHOWERY REGIME WILL PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FORECAST TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRESSING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE CWA AROUND 00Z TUESDAY EVENING. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT
TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF THUNDER...WITH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 850MB
LI/S AND A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS ARE INDICATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING CLOSE TO SEVERE GIVEN THE LOW INSTABILITY. POSSIBLY SOME
SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST OF CELLS.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
CONTAIN THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OF THE TWO PERIODS GIVEN A
DIURNAL BOOST TO THE ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY
131. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUD COVER.

OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD
BE ON THE DECREASE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SINKING SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
EARLY THURSDAY.  WE STILL MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SE CWA
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THESE SHOULD PULL AWAY BY MID DAY.

THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW OPENS THE DOOR TO AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD
IN...RESULTING IN WARMER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD BE 70 TO 75...BUT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE IS
NOT ALLOWED TO FULLY BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER...AS A JAMES BAY
VORTEX BRINGS A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE GOOD TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET
UNSTABLE BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.  CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

THE FRONT BRINGS IN COOLER WEATHER...BUT IT APPEARS ONLY NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WE MAY SEE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE VFR CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT AND VFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH MKG BY EARLY EVENING TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY.
WAVES WILL BE NEARLY FLAT MUCH OF THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN
TO RAMP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...BUT GIVEN
IT IS A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SOME OF THIS WILL NOT MIX TO THE
SURFACE.

THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN IS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS STRONG
NORTH COLD AIR ADVECTION WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A LOW. WINDS
COULD HIT GALE FORCE AND WE WILL NEED AT LEAST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. GIVEN THIS IS OUT IN THE FORTH PERIOD OF THE FORECAST AND
BEYOND HOLDING OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG SYCAMORE CREEK NEAR
HOLT BY THIS EVENING. SYCAMORE CREEK CONTINUES TO RISE AND IS
APPROACHING BANKFULL. AT BANKFULL... FLOODING ALSO BEGINS AT THE
LANSING MUNICIPAL GOLF COURSE AND SCOTT WOODS PARK. THE GRAND RIVER
AT IONIA MAY ALSO APPROACH BANKFULL TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE LIGHT IN NATURE. RAINFALL TOTALS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. BUT RIVER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... SO
RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...DUKE



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