Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRR 231850
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS WITH LOCALIZED FOG TO THE AREA. A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. A LOT OF SUNNY
AND WARM DAYS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOMEWHAT COOL NIGHTS WITH SOME VERY
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING HOLDING TIGHT OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC AND HOLDING UP THE PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRY TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA BY THU...
HOWEVER IT WILL GET STOPPED IN ITS TRACKS BY THE BOTTLENECK BEING
CREATED BY THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. AS IT HOLDS UP...THE STRONG UPPER LOW
COMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW MID-WEEK WILL ONLY REINFORCE THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA AND HELP THE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE. WE WILL
SEE DRY AIR HOLD IN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP OUR CHCS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM NEAR ZERO.

PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK MAINLY DUE TO THE NEARLY
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS COMBINING WITH THE WARM GROUND
AND INLAND BODIES OF WATER. THIS IS VERY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY NOTICEABLE IMPACTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...GIVEN
THE WEAK LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.  A LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE GULF OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY TRACK IN OUR DIRECTION NEXT WEEK.  THE HIGH
RES EURO HAS IT IN OUR REGION BY MID WEEK...WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT
TRACK IT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.  THE HIGH RES EURO IS TRENDING
FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND THE EURO ENDS
UP BEING CORRECT...TUESDAY WOULD END UP BEING A WET DAY.  FOR
NOW...I WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS GOING FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECASTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION IS SHOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT.  WE WILL LIKELY WARM UP FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS
GULF MOISTURE STARTS STREAMING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT.
AS OF NOW...THE IMPACTS TO THE TAFS SITES LOOKS LIMITED. WE WILL
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS POTENTIAL RISK LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  I DID MAINTAIN THE MVFR FOG FOR KJXN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO MARINE ISSUES EXPECTED THE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL SEE WINDS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS ARE RUNNING AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE...AND WILL ONLY DROP THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.