Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRR 220703
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
303 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL TODAY BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MID
WEEK AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

ONCE THE POLAR JET CORE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND REMAIN SO FOR SOME TIME TO COME.

WE START OUT WITH AN EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET AROUND 45 N THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR JAPAN TO ALMOST THE WEST COST OF THE UNITED
STATES (00Z MONDAY). OVER TIME THIS BREAKS DOWN INTO THREE
SEPARATE UPPER WAVES... ALL OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THAT RESULTS
IN SPLIT FLOW AND RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE VERY SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE STRETCH OF DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY MID WEEK...BUT THEN IT RETROGRADES AND BUILDS BACK OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING ALSO
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.  THEN BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AGAIN.  THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEPER
SOUTHERN FLOW AND TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE CORE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER US ON SATURDAY WHEN A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
HIGHS AROUND 80...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CEILINGS ARE MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT 00Z...BUT THERE ARE
SOME VFR SPOTS SHOWING UP. CLEARING IS EVEN MOVING INTO THE
LAKESHORE. WENT PESSIMISTIC THOUGH IN THE 00Z TAFS AS MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE ROTATING BACK IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT. THE WESTERN TAF SITES MAY BE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE THOUGH AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH OVERALL IN HOW CLOUDS
EVOLVE. THE BOTTOM LINE THOUGH...WE ARE IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND DELTA
T/S OFF THE LAKE EVEN SUPPORT STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ALL OF
THIS POINTS TOWARDS CLOUDS TRYING TO HANG IN. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE THEN GOING VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THE
GUSTINESS GONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 6-11 KNOTS
WILL TREND WESTERLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

I CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TILL NOON TO ALLOW THE WAVE
HEIGHTS TO COME DOWN BELOW 4 FEET. THE SOUTH THIRD OF OUR NEAR
SHORE WILL BE LAST PLACE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

WITH NO RAIN FORECAST AND RIVERS WELL WITHING THEIR BANKS...
LITTLE TO WORRY ABOUT HERE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.