Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 271647
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1247 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FEW FLURRIES WILL LINGER TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COLD THROUGH SATURDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MODERATE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE PCPN TYPE
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY.

A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL
CRITICAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL LIKELY FALL AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW AT LOCATIONS WHERE
PCPN FALLS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS
RELATIVELY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA. HOWEVER FOR
MOST OF OUR FCST AREA ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED. THIS WET SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH IF AT ALL
SINCE MAX TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD REACH UP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
AND SNOW WILL NOT BE HEAVY.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WX WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MAX
TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A BAND OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE TRACKING
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING THEN EXITING TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW AS
SFC TEMPS COOL AFTER SUNSET ALTHOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY STILL BE
DIFFICULT SINCE THE PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING AS THE COOLING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS OCCURRING.

IN GENERAL NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SYSTEMS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S..
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE TRACKING ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH IS
PROGGED TO BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER MICHIGAN EARLY IN
THE WEEK... BUT THEN LIFTS NORTH OF MICHIGAN BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

THE ECMWF IS STILL SHOWING A CLIPPER COMING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT IS TRENDING A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS NRN LWR MI WOULD FAVOR THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP BEING TO OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
MIXED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW HERE IN SW MI.

FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD A DEEP LOW IS PROGGED NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
WITH A WARM FRONT/OCCLUSION EXTENDING SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIMITED AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE MAIN ITEM OF NOTE WILL BE
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 12 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS WE MOVE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL OCCUR IN NORTHERLY FLOW INTO TONIGHT...BUT
THAT WILL KEEP THOUGH TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN TAF SITES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RIVERS ARE COMFORTABLY BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM HAD LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON
RIVER LEVELS. PRECIPITATION ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN WEDNESDAY... SO FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS






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