Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 262346
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
746 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PRODUCE FAIR AND VERY MILD
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. PATCHY MORNING FOG IS
ANTICIPATED DAILY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE WE EXPECT
SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE EAST OF US-131 GIVEN THE LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW... BUT SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA
ALSO.

THE SAME GENERAL WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONDUCIVE TO
FORMATION OF FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
SLIPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.  THE BEST FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE STAYS NORTH OF BIG
RAPIDS SO THE POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THAT REGION. I STILL KEPT THEM
AT LESS THAN LIKELY.  WEAKNESS IN THE STABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS
FRONT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IS NOT ZERO...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT WE WILL SEE SOME STORMS SO I KEPT THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN FOR TUE INTO WED THEN A TROUGH SHARPENS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AN NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
GFS HAS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY WHILE THE HIGH RES
EURO HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL FRIDAY.  THE HIGH RES EURO HAS TRENDED
SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER.  THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE DIVERGING ON THE SCENARIO WITH THE MOST RECENT RUNS.  AS
A RESULT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS IN  FOR THU INTO FRI.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP AS WELL WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
VALUES IN THE 70S THU BEFORE LOWERING INTO THE 60S FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS ARE LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF GRR INCLUDING JXN AND
LAN. THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN IS 08Z-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH LIGHT TO CALM SFC WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

MINIMAL WAVE HEIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES AS DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS





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