Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 020728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE
FINISH THE WEEK AND HEAD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ONLY
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SMALL...AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ON THE FOURTH.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
TODAY...WARM TO AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY AND PUSH INTO THE 80S ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. FOCUS WAS ON THE CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS REAPPEARING ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER TODAY AND THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON THE FOURTH ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE REFORMED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS IN THE LOWEST 100MB/S WILL PICK UP JUST A BIT OUT OF
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KNOTS...WHICH MAY BRING THESE CLOUDS
BACK INTO ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS MORNING...QUICKLY
TRENDING MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE
REMAINS AT 850MB/S THIS MORNING WHICH WILL AID IN CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT IS REPLACED QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON BY
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND RIDGING. THE CU SCHEME ALSO SUPPORTS SOME
CLOUDS THIS MORNING THEN TRENDING SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY...THE FOURTH. ALL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE FORECASTING
SOME INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE AS MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ECMWF...GFS AND THE CANADIAN GEM ALL SHOW
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS INLAND CENTRAL LOWER MI...TOWARDS
CLARE...MT. PLEASANT AND BIG RAPIDS. MAINTAINED 20 PCT POPS IN THIS
AREA JUST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING
MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY THOUGH.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY
BENIGN....WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPPER RIDGING SHOULD HOLD OFF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.  DRY AND PLEASANT...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HOWEVER THE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS
SHOULD BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE CWA BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SHOWING THE FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONGER STORMS ON TUESDAY.  SOME RAIN COULD
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDENT ON THE FRONTAL SPEED.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY.  THE AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...SO TEMPS SHOULD LARGELY BE NEAR AVERAGE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
WAS A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL LOWER. THESE CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE TAF SITES
DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING AND COULD BRIEFLY BRING IN
MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THIS WILL
HAPPEN AS THE CLOUDS WERE OCCASIONAL BREAKING UP.  IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...ANY MVFR WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

NORTH FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KICK UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE WHICH WILL LIKELY BUILD WAVES INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
THIS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY THOUGH WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A NARROW SWATH OF ABOUT 1 INCH OF RAIN FELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF
LANSING ON TUESDAY. THIS WATER WILL COLLECT IN THE SYCAMORE CREEK
AND UPPER GRAND RIVER BASIN. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES NEAR HOLT AND
IONIA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES
NEAR COMSTOCK/KALAMAZOO AND NEW RICHMOND CONTINUE... AND RIVER
LEVELS THERE ARE SLOWLY RECEDING. ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE



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