Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 061956
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
256 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A RELATIVELY INACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS TO SET IN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. DEEP
COLD WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A FEW UNIMPRESSIVE CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRY ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THERES NOT MUCH TO BE CONCERNED WITH IN THE NEAR TERM WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED GOING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

A FEW FLURRIES CAN BE ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS. THIS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS TO BE FOUND IN THE
VERTICAL PROFILE AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR ALOFT. WHAT IS NEAR
THE SURFACE BEGINS TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FROM
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO RAMP UP THROUGH MID MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
MILE PER HOUR BEING A GOOD BET. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH LATER TODAY AND COULD THICKEN THE CLOUDS BACK UP THIS
EVENING. A COUPLE OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN...THERES JUST NOT MUCH THERE TO WORK WITH.

IT SEEMS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL COME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FIRST ON SATURDAY MORNING WHERE A BIT OF
LIFT IS PRESENT IN THE DGZ AND A DGZ THAT FINALLY LIFTS OFF THE
GROUND. THAT SAID...THE DGZ IS NOT TOTALLY SATURATED EITHER SO THERE
ARE AGAIN SOME LIMITING FACTORS WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM AS WELL.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY...BUT AS THE THEME
GOES THIS TOO IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANYTHING EXCITING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

PRETTY QUIET IN THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY A WEAK CLIPPER COMING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...AND AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH IMPACT TO THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MILDER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY IN ZONAL FLOW
REGIME WITH THE POLAR JET RETREATING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHERE A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. LEFT DRY WEATHER GOING AS
THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN ON
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THROUGH 00Z...MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT THE MKG
TERMINAL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS SHOULD ABATE FAIRLY SOON.
AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

AFTER 00Z...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH
12Z AT MKG. FUEL ALTERNATE VSBY/CIG THRESHOLDS COULD QUITE POSSIBLY
BE MET AFTER 03Z AT GRR WITH MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW SPREADING INTO THE
AREA. AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS...THERE IS LESS CONCERN FOR
RESTRICTIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FUEL
ALTERNATE CIGS BELOW 2000FT AGL AT SOME SITES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

CURRENT FLOWS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. RISK OF FLOODING FROM LATE WINTER INTO SPRING IS STILL
NEAR NORMAL...BUT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. RIVER
LEVELS ARE STABLE...AND ICE BREAKUP HAS YET TO OCCUR. THE WARM UP
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS VERY GRADUAL. WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWS BELOW FREEZING...CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A SLOW
MELTING PROCESS OF SNOW AND RIVER ICE NEXT WEEK. DIRECT SUNLIGHT
HELPS EAT AWAY AT RIVER ICE QUITE A BIT ALSO.

THE OTHER MAJOR FACTOR IS RAINFALL. THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IS
QUITE DRY. THUS...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SLOWLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY FROM MID WEEK ON. MOSTLY WITHIN BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW SMALLER STREAMS COULD EXCEED BANKFULL.

LOOKING BEYOND NEXT WEEK...CPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MARCH 19. A STRONGER
WARM UP INTO THE 50S OR 60S...ALONG WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT WOULD GREATLY INCREASE THE FLOODING RISK. ICE JAMS ARE NOT
EASY TO FORECAST...BUT SERIOUS ICE JAM FLOODING BECOMES A MAJOR
CONCERN WHEN WARM TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY RAIN COMBINE TO RAPIDLY
ELEVATE RIVER LEVELS TO BUST UP ICE COVER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAM
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...EBW





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