Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FGUS73 KGRR 070025
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MIC005-015-025-035-037-045-057-065-067-073-075-077-081-085-
105-107-117-121-123-127-133-139-159-051600-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
724 PM EST THU MAR 06 2014

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS IN
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

...FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS...

THE RISK OF FLOODING FROM LATE WINTER INTO SPRING IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.  RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE AN INCREASED
RISK FOR FLOODING...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING IN THE GRAND RIVER BASIN.  OVERALL THIS FLOOD OUTLOOK
REFLECTS A HIGHER RISK FOR FLOODING AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
ISSUANCE.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...

THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE.  HOWEVER SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE SOME INUNDATIONS OF
STRUCTURES AND ROADS NEAR STREAMS.  SOME EVACUATIONS OF PEOPLE
AND/OR TRANSFER OF PROPERTY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION OF
STRUCTURES AND ROADS.  SIGNIFICANT EVACUATIONS OF PEOPLE AND/OR
TRANSFER OF PROPERTY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

...PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK...

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

...PAST PRECIPITATION...

FALL PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION FOR
JANUARY THROUGH FEBRUARY...WAS ABOVE NORMAL. SEASONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY MARCH WERE ROUGHLY 150 PERCENT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR NORTHERN BASINS TO GREATER THAN 175 PERCENT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SOUTHERN BASINS

...RIVER CONDITIONS...

CURRENT FLOWS GENERALLY ARE NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.  ICE
COVERAGE ON THE RIVERS IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTHS...

SOIL MOISTURE IS ABOVE NORMAL AND FROST DEPTHS UNDER THE
SNOWPACK ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...

THE EXISTING WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES IN THE SNOWPACK REPRESENT
VALUES THAT YOU MIGHT SEE ONCE EVERY 25 TO 50 YEARS.

SNOW DEPTHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY
RANGE 1 TO 2 FEET.  THE CURRENT WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOWPACK
RANGES FROM 3.5 TO 7 INCHES IN OUR MORE NORTHERN RIVER BASINS TO 1.8
TO 6 INCHES IN OUR MORE SOUTHERN RIVER BASINS. SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER
CONTENT OF THE SNOW IS HIGHEST IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE GRAND
RIVER BASIN...IN OUR NORTHERN RIVER BASINS...AND IN RIVER BASINS
CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 12 THROUGH MARCH 16 CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BUT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH
INTO MAY CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS IN
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND CALLS FOR THE RISK OF FLOODING FROM
LATE WINTER INTO SPRING TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLOODING...WITH THE
GREATEST RISK FOR FLOODING IN THE GRAND RIVER BASIN WITH SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR OR ABOVE A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST
MODERATE FLOODING.  THE PRESENCE OF ICE AND FROZEN GROUND MAY
COMPLICATE THE FORECASTS AND COULD RESULT IN GREATER RISKS FOR
FLOODING THAN THE CURRENT PROBABILISTIC DISTRIBUTIONS.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.



...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:RED CEDAR RIVER
WILLIAMSTON          9.0   10.0   10.5 :  52   <5   10   <5    6   <5
EAST LANSING         7.0   10.0   13.0 : >95   20   18   <5   <5   <5
:SYCAMORE CREEK
HOLT                 8.0    9.0   10.0 :  53    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER
EAGLE                7.0    9.0   11.0 : >95   38   50    6   <5   <5
:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLE RAPIDS         9.0   11.0   13.0 : >95   40   <5   <5   <5   <5
:THORNAPPLE RIVER
HASTINGS             7.0    9.0   10.0 : >95   40   52   <5    7   <5
CALEDONIA           10.0   12.0   14.0 :  92   16   55   <5   15   <5
:ROGUE RIVER
ROCKFORD             8.0   10.0   11.0 :  38   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
:FLAT RIVER
SMYRNA               8.5    9.5   10.5 :  32   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:GRAND RIVER
JACKSON             14.0   15.0   16.0 :  90   20   78   12   47   <5
EATON RAPIDS         6.0    8.0    9.0 :  30   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DIMONDALE           13.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LANSING             11.0   13.0   15.0 :  89   10   36   <5   10   <5
GRAND LEDGE         11.0   13.0   15.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PORTLAND            12.0   14.0   16.0 :  29   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
IONIA               21.0   23.0   25.0 :  83   13   35   <5    6   <5
LOWELL              15.0   18.0   20.0 :  92   20   30   <5    6   <5
ADA                 20.0   22.0   25.0 :  86    7   52   <5   10   <5
GRAND RAPIDS        18.0   21.0   23.0 :  90    9   41   <5   18   <5
:MUSKEGON RIVER
EVART               12.0   13.0   14.0 :  35   24   12   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER
MORLEY               6.0    7.0    8.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MUSKEGON RIVER
CROTON               9.0   11.0   13.0 :  58   40    6   <5   <5   <5
:WHITE RIVER
WHITEHALL            6.0    7.0    8.0 :  10   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
SCOTTVILLE           5.5    6.5    7.0 :  12   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BATTLE CREEK
BATTLE CREEK         4.0    5.0    6.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KALAMAZOO RIVER
MARSHALL             8.0    9.0   10.0 :  15    7    7    7    6    6
BATTLE CREEK         9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
COMSTOCK             9.0   10.0   11.0 :  41    6   15   <5    7   <5
NEW RICHMOND        17.0   19.0   21.0 :  52   <5   10   <5   <5   <5
:ST JOSEPH RIVER
BURLINGTON           6.5    9.0   11.0 :  86   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PORTAGE RIVER
VICKSBURG            5.0    7.0    8.0 :  93   35   12   <5   <5   <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
MT PLEASANT          8.0   11.0   13.0 :  18    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PINE RIVER
ALMA                 8.0   10.0   12.0 :   7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:RED CEDAR RIVER
WILLIAMSTON           8.0    8.2    8.6    9.0    9.5   10.1   11.0
EAST LANSING          7.6    8.0    8.4    9.0    9.7   10.8   12.1
:SYCAMORE CREEK
HOLT                  7.1    7.3    7.6    8.0    8.3    8.7    9.2
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER
EAGLE                 7.6    7.7    8.1    9.1    9.6   10.4   11.0
:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLE RAPIDS          9.3    9.3    9.4    9.7    9.9   10.0   10.1
:THORNAPPLE RIVER
HASTINGS              7.8    8.0    8.5    9.1    9.3    9.9   10.4
CALEDONIA             9.8   10.6   11.4   12.1   13.0   14.7   16.1
:ROGUE RIVER
ROCKFORD              6.6    6.8    7.3    7.8    8.4    9.1    9.5
:FLAT RIVER
SMYRNA                6.6    7.1    7.6    8.1    8.7    9.3   10.0
:GRAND RIVER
JACKSON              13.7   14.3   15.3   16.0   17.5   18.9   20.6
EATON RAPIDS          4.8    5.0    5.4    5.8    6.2    6.9    7.4
DIMONDALE             8.9    9.2   10.1   10.7   11.5   12.5   13.0
LANSING              10.4   10.9   11.5   12.6   13.7   15.3   17.1
GRAND LEDGE           8.9    9.2    9.4    9.9   10.3   10.8   11.3
PORTLAND             10.3   10.6   11.1   11.5   12.2   13.0   13.8
IONIA                20.3   20.7   21.4   22.3   23.3   24.6   25.4
LOWELL               14.6   15.2   16.1   17.2   18.3   19.6   20.3
ADA                  19.0   19.8   20.6   22.1   23.1   25.3   26.5
GRAND RAPIDS         16.7   18.1   18.9   20.7   22.2   24.8   26.3
:MUSKEGON RIVER
EVART                10.4   10.6   11.1   11.7   12.3   13.1   13.7
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER
MORLEY                3.5    3.5    3.9    4.4    4.9    5.1    5.5
:MUSKEGON RIVER
CROTON                8.1    8.3    8.6    9.2    9.8   10.5   11.2
:WHITE RIVER
WHITEHALL             4.3    4.6    5.0    5.4    5.7    6.1    6.3
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
SCOTTVILLE            3.8    3.9    4.2    4.7    5.1    5.6    5.8
:BATTLE CREEK
BATTLE CREEK          2.4    2.6    2.7    3.1    3.5    3.9    4.4
:KALAMAZOO RIVER
MARSHALL              6.4    6.5    6.7    7.0    7.7    8.9   11.3
BATTLE CREEK          5.5    5.5    6.0    6.6    7.2    8.1    9.0
COMSTOCK              7.2    7.3    7.9    8.7    9.4   10.9   11.8
NEW RICHMOND         15.8   15.9   16.4   17.1   17.8   19.1   20.5
:ST JOSEPH RIVER
BURLINGTON            6.3    6.4    6.7    6.9    7.4    8.0    8.2
:PORTAGE RIVER
VICKSBURG             5.0    5.1    5.2    5.3    5.5    7.3    8.4
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
MT PLEASANT           5.9    6.3    6.6    7.2    7.8    8.6    9.1
:PINE RIVER
ALMA                  5.6    5.8    6.2    6.8    7.5    7.9    8.8

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:RED CEDAR RIVER
WILLIAMSTON           2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.6    2.5    2.5
EAST LANSING          3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2
:SYCAMORE CREEK
HOLT                  3.0    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER
EAGLE                 3.0    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.7
:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLE RAPIDS          3.6    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.3    3.1    3.1
:THORNAPPLE RIVER
HASTINGS              3.3    3.3    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.1
CALEDONIA             3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5
:ROGUE RIVER
ROCKFORD              3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9
:FLAT RIVER
SMYRNA                3.6    3.6    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5
:GRAND RIVER
JACKSON               9.0    9.0    8.9    8.9    8.9    8.9    8.9
EATON RAPIDS          3.7    3.7    3.7    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6
DIMONDALE             5.1    5.0    5.0    5.0    4.9    4.9    4.9
LANSING               3.1    3.0    3.0    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.9
GRAND LEDGE           5.1    5.1    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0
PORTLAND              5.4    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3
IONIA                 9.0    8.9    8.9    8.9    8.9    8.8    8.8
LOWELL                5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.4    5.4    5.4
ADA                   6.7    6.7    6.7    6.6    6.6    6.6    6.5
GRAND RAPIDS          3.4    3.4    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3
:MUSKEGON RIVER
EVART                 7.2    7.2    7.2    7.2    7.1    7.1    7.1
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER
MORLEY                2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2
:MUSKEGON RIVER
CROTON                5.0    5.0    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9
:WHITE RIVER
WHITEHALL             1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.4
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
SCOTTVILLE            1.6    1.6    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.4
:BATTLE CREEK
BATTLE CREEK          0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9
:KALAMAZOO RIVER
MARSHALL              4.4    4.4    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3
BATTLE CREEK          3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.1    3.0
COMSTOCK              4.3    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2
NEW RICHMOND         11.0   10.9   10.7   10.7   10.7   10.7   10.5
:ST JOSEPH RIVER
BURLINGTON            3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.6    3.6    3.6
:PORTAGE RIVER
VICKSBURG             3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.7    3.7    3.7
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
MT PLEASANT           3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1
:PINE RIVER
ALMA                  1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3

THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF
STAGE EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING
THE PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS...TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND RAPIDS AHPS WEB
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

        WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRR

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/GRR FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE 7 DAY RIVER FORECASTS
THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
THURSDAY...MARCH 20TH.

ADDITIONAL FLOOD AWARENESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
WEATHER.GOV/FLOODSAFETY...FLOODSMART.GOV AND READY.GOV/FLOODS

$$

MJS








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