Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FGUS73 KGRR 202219
ESFGRR
MIC005-015-025-035-037-045-057-065-067-073-075-077-081-085-
105-107-117-121-123-127-133-139-159-061940-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
518 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS IN
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

...FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS...

THE RISK OF FLOODING FROM LATE WINTER INTO SPRING IS ABOVE NORMAL.
RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE AN INCREASED RISK FOR
FLOODING...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING IN THE
GRAND RIVER BASIN...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
GRAND...FROM IONIA TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...

THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE.  HOWEVER SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE SOME INUNDATIONS OF
STRUCTURES AND ROADS NEAR STREAMS.  SOME EVACUATIONS OF PEOPLE
AND/OR TRANSFER OF PROPERTY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION OF
STRUCTURES AND ROADS.  SIGNIFICANT EVACUATIONS OF PEOPLE AND/OR
TRANSFER OF PROPERTY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

...PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK...

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

...PAST PRECIPITATION...

FALL PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION FOR
JANUARY AND THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY...WAS ABOVE NORMAL.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...

CURRENT FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL.  ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS IS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTHS...

SOIL MOISTURE IS ABOVE NORMAL AND FROST DEPTHS UNDER THE
SNOWPACK ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...

SNOW DEPTHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 15 TO 23 INCHES IN OUR MORE NORTHERN RIVER BASINS TO 12
TO 20 INCHES IN OUR MORE SOUTHERN RIVER BASINS.  CURRENT WATER
CONTENT OF THE SNOWPACK RANGES FROM 3.5 TO 5 INCHES IN OUR MORE
NORTHERN RIVER BASINS TO 1.8 TO 6 INCHES IN OUR MORE SOUTHERN RIVER
BASINS. SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW IS HIGHEST IN THE
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE GRAND RIVER BASIN...IN OUR NORTHERN RIVER
BASINS...AND IN RIVER BASINS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 26 THROUGH MARCH 2 CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.  THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH INTO MAY
CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS IN
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND CALLS FOR THE RISK OF FLOODING FROM
LATE WINTER INTO SPRING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLOODING...WITH THE
GREATEST RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING IN THE GRAND RIVER
BASIN...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE GRAND...FROM IONIA TO
LAKE MICHIGAN.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  2/25/2014 - 5/26/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:RED CEDAR RIVER
WILLIAMSTON          9.0   10.0   10.5 :  40   <5    7   <5   <5   <5
EAST LANSING         7.0   10.0   13.0 :  93   23   10   <5   <5   <5
:SYCAMORE CREEK
HOLT                 8.0    9.0   10.0 :  33    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER
EAGLE                7.0    9.0   11.0 :  93   40   46    6    6   <5
:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLE RAPIDS         9.0   11.0   13.0 : >95   40   <5   <5   <5   <5
:THORNAPPLE RIVER
HASTINGS             7.0    9.0   10.0 : >95   40   44    6    9   <5
CALEDONIA           10.0   12.0   14.0 :  84   18   44   <5   15   <5
:ROGUE RIVER
ROCKFORD             8.0   10.0   11.0 :  44   16    6   <5   <5   <5
:FLAT RIVER
SMYRNA               8.5    9.5   10.5 :  35   <5   12   <5   <5   <5
:GRAND RIVER
JACKSON             14.0   15.0   16.0 :  72   20   55   13   35   <5
EATON RAPIDS         6.0    8.0    9.0 :  21   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DIMONDALE           13.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LANSING             11.0   13.0   15.0 :  67   12   26   <5    6   <5
GRAND LEDGE         11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PORTLAND            12.0   14.0   16.0 :  20   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
IONIA               21.0   23.0   25.0 :  75   13   33   <5   <5   <5
LOWELL              15.0   18.0   20.0 :  81   18   27   <5   <5   <5
ADA                 20.0   22.0   25.0 :  76    6   43   <5    7   <5
GRAND RAPIDS        18.0   21.0   23.0 :  78    7   38   <5   18   <5
:MUSKEGON RIVER
EVART               12.0   13.0   14.0 :  46   26   21   <5    7   <5
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER
MORLEY               6.0    7.0    8.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MUSKEGON RIVER
CROTON               9.0   11.0   13.0 :  69   40   10   <5   <5   <5
:WHITE RIVER
WHITEHALL            6.0    7.0    8.0 :  12   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
SCOTTVILLE           5.5    6.5    7.0 :  13    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BATTLE CREEK
BATTLE CREEK         4.0    5.0    6.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KALAMAZOO RIVER
MARSHALL             8.0    9.0   10.0 :  10   <5    6   <5   <5   <5
BATTLE CREEK         9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
COMSTOCK             9.0   10.0   11.0 :  30    6    9   <5   <5   <5
NEW RICHMOND        17.0   19.0   21.0 :  55   <5   15   <5   <5   <5
:ST JOSEPH RIVER
BURLINGTON           6.5    9.0   11.0 :  40   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PORTAGE RIVER
VICKSBURG            5.0    7.0    8.0 :  87   35    6   <5   <5   <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
MT PLEASANT          8.0   11.0   13.0 :  36    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PINE RIVER
ALMA                 8.0   10.0   12.0 :  32    6   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 2/25/2014 - 5/26/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:RED CEDAR RIVER
WILLIAMSTON           7.4    7.8    8.3    8.8    9.3    9.7   10.7
EAST LANSING          7.0    7.5    7.8    8.7    9.3   10.1   11.2
:SYCAMORE CREEK
HOLT                  6.7    7.0    7.4    7.9    8.1    8.4    8.6
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER
EAGLE                 6.9    7.3    8.0    8.9    9.9   10.4   11.3
:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLE RAPIDS          9.1    9.2    9.4    9.6    9.9   10.1   10.2
:THORNAPPLE RIVER
HASTINGS              7.1    7.6    8.1    8.9    9.4   10.0   10.1
CALEDONIA             8.9    9.4   10.8   11.8   13.2   14.3   15.1
:ROGUE RIVER
ROCKFORD              6.3    6.8    7.3    7.9    8.7    9.7   10.4
:FLAT RIVER
SMYRNA                6.5    6.8    7.4    8.2    8.8    9.9   10.4
:GRAND RIVER
JACKSON              13.2   13.4   13.9   15.5   16.4   18.4   19.4
EATON RAPIDS          4.6    4.7    5.0    5.4    5.9    6.5    6.9
DIMONDALE             8.5    8.7    9.4   10.2   11.0   12.2   12.6
LANSING               8.8    9.5   10.7   11.8   13.1   14.3   16.5
GRAND LEDGE           7.9    8.4    9.1    9.6   10.1   10.5   11.1
PORTLAND              9.4    9.8   10.4   11.2   11.9   12.4   13.7
IONIA                18.9   19.4   21.1   22.4   23.3   24.3   26.7
LOWELL               13.2   13.5   15.5   17.3   18.3   19.5   21.6
ADA                  17.6   18.0   20.2   21.8   23.2   24.8   27.3
GRAND RAPIDS         15.0   15.9   18.4   20.4   22.5   24.1   27.1
:MUSKEGON RIVER
EVART                10.4   10.7   11.3   11.9   12.8   13.6   14.8
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER
MORLEY                3.4    3.6    4.0    4.5    5.0    5.6    5.7
:MUSKEGON RIVER
CROTON                8.0    8.4    8.8    9.5   10.2   11.1   11.6
:WHITE RIVER
WHITEHALL             4.3    4.8    5.2    5.5    5.8    6.3    6.5
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
SCOTTVILLE            3.9    4.0    4.3    4.9    5.3    5.9    6.4
:BATTLE CREEK
BATTLE CREEK          2.1    2.2    2.5    2.7    3.2    3.7    4.1
:KALAMAZOO RIVER
MARSHALL              6.2    6.4    6.5    6.8    7.1    8.0    9.3
BATTLE CREEK          5.0    5.1    5.6    6.2    7.0    7.7    8.8
COMSTOCK              6.5    6.7    7.5    8.3    9.2   10.2   11.7
NEW RICHMOND         15.4   15.6   16.4   17.2   18.1   19.4   19.7
:ST JOSEPH RIVER
BURLINGTON            5.7    5.8    6.0    6.4    6.7    7.1    7.7
:PORTAGE RIVER
VICKSBURG             4.9    5.0    5.1    5.3    5.4    6.0    8.4
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
MT PLEASANT           5.7    6.1    6.5    7.5    8.5    9.5   10.1
:PINE RIVER
ALMA                  5.4    6.0    6.4    7.0    8.1    8.7    9.4

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 2/25/2014 - 5/26/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:RED CEDAR RIVER
WILLIAMSTON           3.0    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.5
EAST LANSING          3.4    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.2    3.2
:SYCAMORE CREEK
HOLT                  3.1    3.1    3.1    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER
EAGLE                 3.1    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.7
:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLE RAPIDS          4.0    4.0    3.8    3.7    3.4    3.3    3.2
:THORNAPPLE RIVER
HASTINGS              3.4    3.4    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.2    3.2
CALEDONIA             3.8    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.6    3.5    3.5
:ROGUE RIVER
ROCKFORD              3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.8
:FLAT RIVER
SMYRNA                3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.6    3.6    3.6
:GRAND RIVER
JACKSON               9.2    9.1    9.1    9.1    9.1    9.0    9.0
EATON RAPIDS          3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7
DIMONDALE             5.4    5.4    5.3    5.3    5.2    5.2    5.1
LANSING               3.4    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.2    3.1    3.1
GRAND LEDGE           5.3    5.3    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.1    5.1
PORTLAND              5.7    5.6    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.4    5.4
IONIA                 9.3    9.3    9.2    9.1    9.0    8.9    8.8
LOWELL                5.8    5.8    5.7    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.4
ADA                   7.3    7.3    7.2    7.0    6.9    6.7    6.6
GRAND RAPIDS          3.5    3.5    3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.3
:MUSKEGON RIVER
EVART                 7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER
MORLEY                2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2
:MUSKEGON RIVER
CROTON                4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9
:WHITE RIVER
WHITEHALL             1.6    1.6    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
SCOTTVILLE            1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5
:BATTLE CREEK
BATTLE CREEK          0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9
:KALAMAZOO RIVER
MARSHALL              3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3
BATTLE CREEK          3.3    3.3    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.1
COMSTOCK              4.3    4.3    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2
NEW RICHMOND         10.9   10.9   10.8   10.8   10.7   10.7   10.6
:ST JOSEPH RIVER
BURLINGTON            3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.7    3.7
:PORTAGE RIVER
VICKSBURG             3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
MT PLEASANT           3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.0    3.0    3.0
:PINE RIVER
ALMA                  1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2


THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF
STAGE EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING
THE PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS...TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND RAPIDS AHPS WEB
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

        WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRR

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/GRR FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE 7 DAY RIVER FORECASTS
THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
MARCH 6 2014.

ADDITIONAL FLOOD AWARENESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
WEATHER.GOV/FLOODSAFETY...FLOODSMART.GOV AND READY.GOV/FLOODS

$$

WALTON















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