Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FGUS73 KGRR 192312
ESFGRR
MIC005-015-025-035-037-045-057-065-067-073-075-077-081-085-
105-107-117-121-123-127-133-139-159-181800-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
600 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS
IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

...FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS...

THE RISK OF FLOODING FROM LATE WINTER INTO SPRING IS GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL. RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE GREATEST
RISK RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE THE GRAND, THORNAPPLE,
LOOKING GLASS AND MAPLE BASINS.   THE MUSKEGON AND CHIPPEWA BASINS
FEATURE A BELOW NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...

THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE.  HOWEVER SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE SOME INUNDATIONS OF
STRUCTURES AND ROADS NEAR STREAMS.  SOME EVACUATIONS OF PEOPLE
AND/OR TRANSFER OF PROPERTY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION
OF STRUCTURES AND ROADS.  SIGNIFICANT EVACUATIONS OF PEOPLE AND/OR
TRANSFER OF PROPERTY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

...PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK...

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA, INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER, AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION.  BY PROVIDING A RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES, THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.  THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE.

...PAST PRECIPITATION...

THE PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS WINTER HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...

CURRENT FLOWS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.
ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS IS LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON
THE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SINCE NOVEMBER.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND FROST DEPTHS...

SOIL MOISTURE WAS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL.  FROST DEPTHS WERE
ABOVE NORMAL.

...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...

SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT WAS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL IN
THE MUSKEGON, WHITE, KALAMAZOO AND PERE MARQUETTE RIVERS, AND
GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE. SNOW DEPTHS RANGED FROM
LESS THAN 10 INCHES IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS TO
UP TO 20 INCHES IN THE LOWER REACHES, CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. WATER
EQUIVALENT VALUES WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES.  SOME WATER CONTENT
VALUES OVER 3 INCHES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE LOWER REACHES OF THE
MAINSTEM RIVERS, CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 27 TO MARCH 5TH CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY SHOWS EQUAL CHANCES
FOR ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS IN
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND CALLS FOR GENERALLY A NEAR NORMAL RISK
FOR FLOODING.  THE MUSKEGON AND CHIPPEWA BASINS FEATURE A
LOWER RISK PARTIALLY DUE TO THE LESS THAN NORMAL WATER CONTENT OF
THE SNOWPACK.  THE RIVERS WITH THE HIGHEST RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING INCLUDE THE GRAND, THORNAPPLE, LOOKING GLASS AND MAPLE
RIVERS.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUES OF CS IS MORE THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.  WHEN THE VALUE
OF CS IS LESS THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS
LOWER THAN NORMAL.




...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:RED CEDAR RIVER
WILLIAMSTON          9.0   10.0   10.5 :  12    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
EAST LANSING         7.0   10.0   13.0 :  58   23   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SYCAMORE CREEK
HOLT                 8.0    9.0   10.0 :  67   30    6   <5   <5   <5
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER
EAGLE                7.0    9.0   11.0 :  84   53   27   13   <5   <5
:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLE RAPIDS         9.0   11.0   13.0 :  61   41   <5   <5   <5   <5
:THORNAPPLE RIVER
HASTINGS             7.0    9.0   10.0 :  69   33   12   <5   <5   <5
CALEDONIA           10.0   12.0   14.0 :  41   15    6   <5   <5   <5
:ROGUE RIVER
ROCKFORD             8.0   10.0   11.0 :  13    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:FLAT RIVER
SMYRNA               8.5    9.5   10.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:GRAND RIVER
JACKSON             14.0   15.0   16.0 :  44   29   29   15   10   10
EATON RAPIDS         6.0    8.0    9.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DIMONDALE           13.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LANSING             11.0   13.0   15.0 :  18    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
GRAND LEDGE         11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PORTLAND            12.0   14.0   16.0 :   7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
IONIA               21.0   23.0   25.0 :  21   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
LOWELL              15.0   18.0   20.0 :  27   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
ADA                 20.0   22.0   25.0 :  23    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
GRAND RAPIDS        18.0   21.0   23.0 :  26   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MUSKEGON RIVER
EVART               12.0   13.0   14.0 :   9   23   <5    7   <5   <5
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER
MORLEY               6.0    7.0    8.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MUSKEGON RIVER
CROTON               9.0   11.0   12.0 :  21   33   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WHITE RIVER
WHITEHALL            6.0    7.0    8.0 :   7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
SCOTTVILLE           5.5    6.5    7.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BATTLE CREEK
BATTLE CREEK         4.0    5.0    6.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KALAMAZOO RIVER
MARSHALL             8.0    9.0   10.0 :  <5   12   <5    9   <5    9
BATTLE CREEK         9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
COMSTOCK             9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
NEW RICHMOND        17.0   19.0   21.0 :   7    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ST JOSEPH RIVER
BURLINGTON           6.5    9.0   11.0 :  12   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PORTAGE RIVER
VICKSBURG            5.0    7.0    8.0 :  38   30   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
MT PLEASANT          8.0   11.0   13.0 :  <5   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PINE RIVER
ALMA                 8.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF  EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:RED CEDAR RIVER
WILLIAMSTON           7.1    7.1    7.7    8.0    8.8    9.2    9.7
EAST LANSING          5.9    6.1    6.8    7.2    8.0    8.6    9.2
:SYCAMORE CREEK
HOLT                  7.2    7.4    7.9    8.2    8.6    8.9    9.0
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER
EAGLE                 6.2    6.8    7.4    8.4    9.1    9.9   10.1
:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLE RAPIDS          8.5    8.7    8.9    9.2    9.5    9.7    9.8
:THORNAPPLE RIVER
HASTINGS              6.0    6.1    6.9    7.7    8.4    9.1    9.5
CALEDONIA             7.0    7.4    8.4    9.6   10.8   11.7   12.9
:ROGUE RIVER
ROCKFORD              5.8    6.1    6.4    6.8    7.5    8.3    8.7
:FLAT RIVER
SMYRNA                5.0    5.3    5.6    6.0    6.8    7.4    7.6
:GRAND RIVER
JACKSON              11.9   12.3   12.8   13.7   15.1   16.3   17.3
EATON RAPIDS          4.2    4.4    4.5    4.8    5.2    5.6    6.1
DIMONDALE             7.2    7.7    8.2    8.8    9.5   10.8   11.3
LANSING               6.8    7.3    8.4    9.3   10.9   12.4   12.6
GRAND LEDGE           6.9    7.2    7.8    8.2    9.2    9.8    9.9
PORTLAND              8.6    9.1    9.7   10.4   11.2   11.8   12.2
IONIA                16.0   17.1   18.3   19.6   20.9   22.2   22.6
LOWELL               10.1   10.9   12.0   13.3   15.6   16.6   17.3
ADA                  14.4   15.2   16.6   18.2   20.0   21.2   22.0
GRAND RAPIDS         11.3   12.3   14.1   16.0   18.1   19.7   20.8
:MUSKEGON RIVER
EVART                 9.4    9.6    9.9   10.5   11.2   12.1   12.9
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER
MORLEY                3.0    3.1    3.3    3.7    4.2    4.8    4.9
:MUSKEGON RIVER
CROTON                7.3    7.5    7.8    8.2    8.9    9.8   10.6
:WHITE RIVER
WHITEHALL             3.6    4.1    4.4    4.9    5.5    5.8    6.1
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
SCOTTVILLE            3.4    3.6    3.9    4.2    4.6    5.1    5.3
:BATTLE CREEK
BATTLE CREEK          1.7    1.8    2.0    2.2    2.5    3.0    3.2
:KALAMAZOO RIVER
MARSHALL              5.1    5.2    5.5    6.0    6.5    7.1    7.4
BATTLE CREEK          4.0    4.2    4.5    4.9    5.5    6.2    6.6
COMSTOCK              5.2    5.5    6.0    6.5    7.3    8.5    8.9
NEW RICHMOND         13.9   14.3   14.7   15.2   16.0   16.9   17.7
:ST JOSEPH RIVER
BURLINGTON            4.8    5.0    5.4    5.7    6.0    6.5    6.9
:PORTAGE RIVER
VICKSBURG             4.6    4.7    4.8    4.9    5.1    5.3    5.5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
MT PLEASANT           4.8    4.9    5.3    5.8    6.5    7.2    7.7
:PINE RIVER
ALMA                  4.5    4.9    5.2    5.8    6.9    7.7    7.8

IN TABLE 3 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:RED CEDAR RIVER
WILLIAMSTON           3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.0    3.0
EAST LANSING          3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2
:SYCAMORE CREEK
HOLT                  3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER
EAGLE                 2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.5    2.5
:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLE RAPIDS          3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.6    3.6
:THORNAPPLE RIVER
HASTINGS              3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.9
CALEDONIA             3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.2    3.2
:ROGUE RIVER
ROCKFORD              4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    3.9    3.9    3.9
:FLAT RIVER
SMYRNA                3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4
:GRAND RIVER
JACKSON               8.8    8.8    8.8    8.8    8.8    8.7    8.7
EATON RAPIDS          3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.5
DIMONDALE             4.6    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.4
LANSING               2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.6    2.6    2.6
GRAND LEDGE           4.9    4.9    4.9    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8
PORTLAND              5.6    5.6    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.5    5.5
IONIA                 8.3    8.3    8.3    8.3    8.3    8.2    8.2
LOWELL                5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    4.9    4.9
ADA                   6.2    6.2    6.2    6.1    6.1    6.0    5.9
GRAND RAPIDS          3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2
:MUSKEGON RIVER
EVART                 7.2    7.2    7.2    7.2    7.2    7.2    7.1
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER
MORLEY                2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2
:MUSKEGON RIVER
CROTON                5.0    5.0    5.0    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9
:WHITE RIVER
WHITEHALL             1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.6
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
SCOTTVILLE            1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.5
:BATTLE CREEK
BATTLE CREEK          0.8    0.8    0.8    0.8    0.8    0.8    0.8
:KALAMAZOO RIVER
MARSHALL              4.0    4.0    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2
BATTLE CREEK          3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    2.9    2.9
COMSTOCK              3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9
NEW RICHMOND         10.2   10.2   10.2   10.2   10.1   10.1   10.0
:ST JOSEPH RIVER
BURLINGTON            3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5
:PORTAGE RIVER
VICKSBURG             3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
MT PLEASANT           3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
:PINE RIVER
ALMA                  1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1


THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS FOR THE PROBABILITY OF
STAGE EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING
THE PERIOD.  THESE GRAPHS...TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND RAPIDS AHPS
WEB PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRR

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/GRR FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
MARCH 4 2015.

ADDITIONAL FLOOD AWARENESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
WEATHER.GOV/FLOODSAFETY...FLOODSMART.GOV AND READY.GOV/FLOODS

$$










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