601
FXUS61 KGYX 042355
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
755 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will persist through tonight as high pressure
remains northeast of New England. An approaching frontal
boundary will bring periods of light rain to the area on Sunday
and Sunday evening before a cold front crosses on Monday
morning. Behind this front, warmer temperatures and dry
conditions will return before unsettled weather arrives again
for the middle and end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

7:55pm Update... No notable changes with the forecast for
tonight. Updated temps and cloud cover based on trends so far
this evening, and the latest high res guidance. Moisture is
increasing across the area again tonight, with patchy fog
expected to develop as breaks in the overcast persist into the
overnight and allow for patchy radiational cooling.

Previous...

Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows high altitude
cirrus streaming from northwest to southeast over an h5 ridge
axis, which is in addition to a cu field that developed in
response to some weak forcing and sfc heating. A sea breeze has
developed, which is pushing inland and behind this front a
pocket of clearing has developed. Current temperatures are into
the upper 50s to lower 60s across the interior with lower 50s
along the coast. Other than an isolated shower across the north,
it will continue to be a dry day under partly sunny skies.

Surface high pressure will continue to drift northeast of the
region tonight as a frontal boundary approaches from the west
and the h5 ridge axis crests overhead. Skies will be partly to
mostly cloudy overnight with some patchy fog possible as lows
fall into the lower to middle 40s. Latest hi-res guidance
indicates that forcing for ascent from the approaching front
likely won`t arrive until towards dawn on Sunday across western
NH and therefore other than an isolated shower towards the CT
River Valley it will remain dry overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The front will continue to approach from the west on Sunday with
periods of light rain overspreading the area from west to
east. Rain will begin in NH during the morning but it may not
arrive over western ME until the afternoon. Rainfall amounts
through the daytime hours will light with around 1/4" or less.
It will otherwise be a cloudy day with cool high temperatures
into the upper 40s to middle 50s.

The main batch of stratiform rain will exit the coast within a
few hours either side of midnight on Sunday morning with just a
few lingering showers in its wake. Fog will once again be
possible due to light winds and lingering LL moisture. Lows
will once again be primarily into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The 500 Mb pattern across the N Hemisphere remains very blocky,
with mostly moderate amplification, through much of next week
but more amplified troughing to our W. This will act as a wave
generator, and allow weak waves to move across N England over
several days mid to late week, with cooler onshore flow likely
again, at least part of the time.

Monday and Tuesday should be decent, although, could see some
lingering SHRA early Monday, which may linger through midday in
the mtns. Morning clouds give way to at least partly sunny skies
in the afternoon as well. Overall the day should show gradual
improvement. 850 MB temps approaching +10C should allow for for
temps to rise into the 70s across much of the area, with mainly
SW winds. Models suggesting more of a turn to the S along the SW
ME which will not be a full sea breeze there, at least until
late in the day, and highs on the coast should be mostly in the
mid to upper 60s, which will be similar to the mtns. Mon night
looks mainly clear and cool, with lows mostly in the 40s, but
might only fall into the low 50s in srn NH. Tuesday looks
slightly warmer than Monday, and with more sun as well, as sfc
high crosses the region. Highs will once again be in the 70s
most place, but could reach into the upper 70s in srn NH. The
coast and mtns once again top out in the mid to upper 60s.
Tuesday night we start to cloud up late with lows in the 40s
once again.

Things go downhill Wed as we get into a flatter pattern with a
weak ridge that gets hit by waves from 500 mb closed low
meandering over the west and central US. This will keep sfc high
to the N with a series of lows riding to the S of it, and allow
for mostly onshore flow and rounds of showers /not unlike what
we saw earlier this week/. While it is not likely to rain every
period in the extended, it also not likely to clear that much
either in between the bouts of showers, and highs are likely to
remain below normal, mainly in the 50s most days, occnly
reaching into the low to mid 60s in some spots. This pattern
looks like it will hold into Saturday, bu any stronger wave that
kick the closed low more quickly to the E, could kick this
pattern out of the area, so confidence is low late in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions will persist through the evening
before deteriorating to MVFR and locally IFR later tonight
through Sunday morning due to lowering ceilings and patchy FG.
Conditions then improve some after 12Z Sunday but MVFR ceilings
will likely persist through the day along with periods of -RA.
MVFR to IFR restrictions are then likely Sunday night as -RA
ends by around 04Z Monday but patchy FG and scattered -SHRA
continues. No LLWS is expected.

Long Term...Mainly VFR expected Monday into Tuesday night. By
Wed and Thu we will be in a familiar pattern with showers and
mainly onshore flow, so flight restrictions a good bet during
the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Light southeasterly winds will continue through
tonight before strengthening up to around 20 kts Sunday night
with seas increasing to 1-3 ft, highest outside of the bays.
An approaching front will bring periods of rain Sunday through
Sunday night along with potential fog.

Long Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA levels through the period
although SE winds will start to pick up a bit on Wed/Thu.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Cempa