Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
287 FXUS66 KHNX 090714 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1214 AM PDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warming trend is expected today through Sunday. 2. By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures will be around ten degrees above normal for this time of year. 3. High temperatures will remain well above seasonal values Monday through Wednesday. 4. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada and a portion of the Kern County mountains and desert Friday afternoon into early Friday evening. && .DISCUSSION... An upper-level area of low pressure over the Great Plains will retrograde westward today. This cyclone aloft will settle over the Great Basin Friday. The atmospheric disturbance should provide enough lift for thunderstorm development over the Sierra Nevada and part of the Kern County mountains and desert Friday afternoon. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes, small hail, wind gusts near 45 mph, and localized flooding. The aforementioned upper-level area of low pressure will move eastward Saturday, before opening up into a trough of low pressure over the Southwest United States Sunday. A cyclone aloft over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will approach the coast of Southern California Monday. This upper-level area of low pressure should make landfall over the Baja Peninsula Tuesday. The atmospheric impulse may provide enough lift for thunderstorm formation over the Sierra Nevada both Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. A ridge of high pressure will build eastward over the Golden State Wednesday. A warming trend is anticipated today through Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures will be around ten degrees above their typical values for the first half of May. Here are probabilities of maximum temperatures of 92 degrees or higher for select locations in the San Joaquin Valley on Sunday, May 12th, 2024: Fresno - 76% Hanford - 76% Lemoore - 76% Bakersfield - 71% Visalia - 71% Merced - 71% Madera - 71% Delano - 71% Porterville - 51% Reedley - 51% High temperatures will remain well above seasonal values Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail throughout Central California for at least the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high. Certainty levels include low, medium, and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public/Aviation/Fire Weather...BS PIO/DSS........................EW weather.gov/hanford