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000
FXUS61 KILN 210211
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1011 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will lead to dry but cool conditions through the
weekend. Temperatures will moderate somewhat by Monday before a
chance of showers returns for Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Northwest to west flow aloft with surface high pressure centered
to our west over the Central Plains with a weak ridge axis extending
east into the Ohio Valley.

Low level moisture over the southern Great Lakes will continue
to stream across areas along and north of I-70 thru the night.

Meanwhile, mid and high level clouds off to our southwest will
advect into our area overnight. This will all lead to an
overall increase in clouds through the night across our area and
this should help steady out temperatures. With these cloud
trends in mind have adjusted temperatures slightly warmer.

Given these cloud and temperature trends - have less confidence
in the formation of fog. Have kept frost advisory over the far
northeast counties but have trimmed back mention of frost
outside of this advisory.

Overnight lows will be mostly in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A mid/upper level trough axis will shift southeast across our
area through Sunday afternoon. With the 850 mb cold pool still
centered over us Sunday morning and some lingering low level
moisture, will allow for some diurnal cu to develop through mid
to late morning and then linger some of this into the
afternoon. These clouds should then dissipate through late
afternoon get on the backside of the upper level trough and
start to lose the diurnal heating. Temperatures will remain
seasonably cool with highs on Sunday only in the mid to
possibly upper 50s. Clearing skies and light winds will lead to
frost potential across much of the area Sunday night as
temperatures drop into the the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Period begins dry on Monday with high pressure draped across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. An intensifying low pressure and cold
front will bring showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, while winds
outside of storms may gust over 30 knots. High pressure returns with
dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms
may accompany a warm front on Friday. A better chance for showers
and storms may exist on Saturday as a warm and unstable regime takes
hold south of low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes.

Temperatures range normal to slightly below normal for much of the
period, with highs generally in the 60s Monday through Friday. Being
situated in the warm sector Saturday should allow above normal highs
in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
West-northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure nosing into
the area overnight. A band of stratocumulus clouds between 4000
and 6000 feet across the southern Great LAkes will continue to
stream across areas generally north of I-70 overnight into
Sunday.

Meanwhile, some mid and high level moisture in association with
some mid level energy, will stream in from the southwest
overnight affecting the southern TAF sites.

With lingering low level moisture and some cold air aloft,
expect scattered to broken VFR cumulus clouds will develop
through late morning and persist into the afternoon.

Northwest winds around 10 kts will diminish to around 5 kts
overnight and then increase to around 10 kts on Sunday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible
Tuesday. Gusty winds to 30 knots possible on Tuesday. MVFR
ceilings may linger into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ026-045-046-
     055-056-065-074.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR