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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
000
FGUS73 KIND 291635
ESFIND
INC005-011-013-015-021-023-027-031-035-045-055-057-059-063-065-
067-071-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-119-121-133-135-
139-145-153-157-159-165-167-171-050200-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1135 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number Two for Central
and much of Southern Indiana...
The spring flood potential outlook covering the months of March,
April, and May for the White, Wabash, and East Fork White Rivers and
their tributaries is slightly below normal. The risk is lower than
last year. A slightly below normal risk means that minor flooding is
expected on the Wabash, lower White, and lower East Fork White, with
isolated moderate flooding possible.
Over the last three months, precipitation across central and
southern portions of the state ranged from around 70 percent to 100
percent of normal, with wetter conditions of 100 to 130 percent of
normal across northern Indiana. During much of the fall and winter
drought conditions were in place across the state. While the pattern
became more active and trended to wetter than normal in January, it
was not enough to completely recover the deficit. Below normal
precipitation for the month of February then kept an area of
abnormally dry conditions remaining on the drought monitor.
Precipitation over the last 14 days was generally half an inch to
two inches over the northern half of the state and from two tenths
of an inch to an inch over the southern half.
Soil moisture across central and southern Indiana is below normal in
the 10th to 30th percentile, and normal across northern Indiana.
Snow depth is below normal as well, with less than two inches of
snow depth in a few counties near Lake Michigan and no snow depth
across central or southern Indiana. Seven day average streamflow is
currently near normal across the northern half of the state and
below normal across the southern half of the state.
The forecast for the next seven days shows precipitation totals of
half an inch near the Michigan border increasing to 1.25 inches over
the southern half of the state. The 8 to 14 day outlook indicates a
lean toward above normal precipitation with above normal
temperatures likely. With the overall pattern and teleconnections,
the first two weeks of March look like a more active rainfall
pattern before things turn drier in late March. Going forward, the
90 day seasonal outlook for March through May shows a lean toward
both above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. With
somewhat dry soils and normal to below normal streamflow currently,
and just a lean toward above normal precipitation this spring, the
outlook favors slightly below normal flood risk for central and
southern Indiana rivers.
There is no appreciable river ice in central and southern Indiana,
and with no obvious extended cold spell on the horizon, there is no
anticipated risk of ice jam flooding.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 30 28 17 18 <5 <5
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 61 72 19 25 <5 <5
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville 9.0 11.0 15.0 : 11 18 6 9 <5 <5
:East Fork White River
Columbus 9.0 14.0 16.0 : 38 35 <5 <5 <5 <5
Rivervale 20.0 30.0 35.0 : 71 76 11 15 <5 <5
Bedford 20.0 27.0 32.0 : 56 61 15 18 <5 <5
Seymour 12.0 17.0 19.0 : 86 93 27 26 <5 <5
Shoals 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 36 38 18 18 <5 5
Williams 8.0 14.0 20.0 : 60 66 16 19 <5 <5
:Eel River
Bowling Green 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 54 61 18 22 <5 <5
:Flatrock River
Columbus 11.0 15.0 19.0 : 48 44 5 <5 <5 <5
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon 17.0 27.0 32.0 : 32 19 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville 15.0 17.0 21.0 : 12 23 <5 18 <5 9
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi 8.0 12.0 15.0 : 30 44 <5 6 <5 <5
:Wabash River
Covington 16.0 24.0 29.0 : 85 90 13 17 <5 <5
Hutsonville Legac 16.0 24.0 28.0 : 92 >95 13 19 <5 <5
Lafayette 11.0 18.0 26.0 : 83 91 22 28 <5 <5
Mount Carmel 19.0 25.0 32.0 : 77 82 37 46 <5 <5
Montezuma 14.0 24.0 31.0 : 92 >95 18 21 <5 <5
Riverton 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 91 >95 22 29 <5 <5
Terre Haute 16.5 24.5 30.0 : 90 91 18 13 <5 <5
Vincennes 16.0 22.0 28.0 : 70 77 19 25 <5 <5
:White River
Anderson 10.0 15.0 19.0 : 21 27 <5 <5 <5 <5
Eagle Valley Powe 603.0 607.0 610.0 : 41 55 7 10 <5 <5
Centerton 12.0 16.0 19.0 : 40 53 7 10 <5 <5
Elliston 18.0 25.0 29.0 : 84 87 20 23 <5 <5
Edwardsport 15.0 22.0 25.0 : 86 90 21 23 <5 <5
Hazleton 16.0 24.0 28.0 : 91 91 28 32 6 6
Indianapolis 16.0 20.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Muncie 9.0 12.0 15.0 : 8 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
Noblesville 14.0 19.0 22.0 : 32 41 <5 <5 <5 <5
Nora 11.0 16.0 19.0 : 35 43 7 6 <5 <5
Newberry 13.0 19.0 24.0 : 70 79 23 34 <5 <5
Petersburg 16.0 23.5 26.0 : 91 90 32 29 11 6
Ravenswood 6.0 10.0 12.0 : 41 51 7 6 <5 <5
Spencer 14.0 20.0 24.0 : 59 82 12 20 <5 <5
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette 10.0 15.0 19.5 : 51 62 10 18 6 7
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville 7.4 7.9 9.4 10.8 13.6 16.1 17.4
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh 6.7 8.1 9.6 12.1 13.4 14.9 15.1
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville 2.8 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.8 9.2 11.5
:East Fork White River
Columbus 2.1 2.7 4.1 7.7 10.5 12.4 13.3
Rivervale 14.5 17.5 19.5 22.8 26.5 30.3 32.9
Bedford 12.7 15.3 17.3 20.8 24.1 28.2 30.6
Seymour 9.1 11.3 13.8 16.1 17.1 18.0 18.5
Shoals 7.7 9.7 12.5 16.5 22.9 27.4 28.7
Williams 4.7 5.7 6.8 8.8 12.1 15.4 17.9
:Eel River
Bowling Green 8.4 9.6 12.0 15.6 19.2 20.9 21.8
:Flatrock River
Columbus 6.0 6.9 8.9 10.9 12.8 14.5 15.0
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon 5.6 6.9 9.9 14.4 18.0 20.7 24.0
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville 6.5 7.1 8.6 10.3 12.7 15.3 16.2
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi 4.1 4.6 5.8 6.9 8.3 10.0 11.5
:Wabash River
Covington 13.4 14.9 17.9 19.8 21.8 24.5 25.4
Hutsonville Legac 15.1 16.8 19.0 20.4 22.6 24.3 25.0
Lafayette 8.8 9.9 12.3 14.8 17.6 19.6 20.9
Mount Carmel 13.8 15.8 19.6 22.7 27.0 29.3 30.6
Montezuma 12.5 14.8 18.9 20.4 23.2 24.9 27.2
Riverton 13.6 15.5 17.7 19.2 21.6 23.6 24.4
Terre Haute 14.1 16.5 19.7 21.1 23.9 25.2 26.2
Vincennes 11.5 12.7 15.6 17.7 21.1 23.5 25.1
:White River
Anderson 6.3 6.7 7.6 8.8 9.6 11.2 13.7
Eagle Valley Powe 598.6 599.1 600.4 602.3 604.3 606.6 607.3
Centerton 6.0 6.6 8.4 10.9 13.5 15.8 16.2
Elliston 15.3 17.1 19.4 22.0 24.4 26.3 27.1
Edwardsport 12.9 14.3 16.8 19.3 21.2 24.1 24.6
Hazleton 13.6 16.4 19.3 21.0 24.4 27.1 28.3
Indianapolis 6.8 7.8 8.3 10.0 11.5 13.1 15.6
Muncie 5.8 6.0 6.6 7.2 7.7 8.5 10.0
Noblesville 8.1 8.6 9.7 11.7 14.9 16.8 18.4
Nora 5.7 7.0 8.0 9.6 11.9 14.6 17.1
Newberry 8.3 9.7 12.3 15.7 18.5 21.5 22.5
Petersburg 13.7 16.9 19.6 21.3 24.3 26.1 26.9
Ravenswood 2.2 3.3 4.2 5.5 7.0 8.8 10.9
Spencer 8.6 9.0 12.1 15.0 17.8 20.4 21.0
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette 6.3 7.2 8.6 10.1 12.8 15.1 21.3
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4
:East Fork White River
Rivervale 6.5 5.9 5.6 5.0 4.8 4.5 4.2
Bedford 4.5 3.9 3.6 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.2
Seymour 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.5
Shoals 4.8 4.6 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.0
Williams 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.8
:Eel River
Bowling Green 4.3 4.1 3.6 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7
:Flatrock River
Columbus 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3
:Wabash River
Covington 7.2 6.6 6.0 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.7
Hutsonville Legac 7.1 6.6 6.3 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.7
Lafayette 3.8 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.9
Mount Carmel 6.3 5.8 5.0 4.4 3.8 3.4 3.1
Montezuma 5.7 5.3 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.9
Riverton 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.1 3.7 3.3 3.0
Terre Haute 6.2 5.9 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.2 4.0
Vincennes 5.4 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.0
:White River
Anderson 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.0
Eagle Valley Powe 594.8 594.6 594.5 594.4 594.3 594.2 594.2
Elliston 7.7 7.3 6.3 5.6 5.0 4.0 3.6
Edwardsport 5.7 5.0 4.6 4.0 3.7 3.1 2.6
Hazleton 5.9 5.7 4.3 3.6 2.8 2.3 2.0
Indianapolis 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4
Muncie 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
Noblesville 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5
Nora 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9
Newberry 3.0 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.4
Petersburg 5.8 5.2 4.0 3.5 2.9 2.5 2.3
Ravenswood 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Spencer 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/ind for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued March 14, 2024.
$$
CP
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