241
FXUS62 KJAX 271754
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
154 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Isolated to widely scattered light showers will stream east to
west as a coastal trough works inland through the rest of the
afternoon. Strong high pressure centered around 1034 mb near the
Mid-Atlantic coast will build south through the afternoon off the
Delmarva coast towards sunset with breezy easterly winds 15-20 mph
gusting to 30-35 mph along the coast and about 10-20 mph west of
I-95. Despite breaks in the clouds owing to initially partly cloudy
skies before mid and high level clouds increase from the west, the
onshore flow will limit highs to the upper 70s near the coast and
lower 80s.


Tonight, easterly winds will gradually wind down after sunset to
8-12 mph and 5-10 mph after midnight with winds persisting longer
along the coast to 10-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph through midnight
and then subsiding to 10-15 mph well after midnight as the high
weakens further and sinks southward to near the NC Outer Banks.
Mostly cloudy skies expected as mid and high level clouds linger,
that should remove the possibility of fog inland tonight. Lows
will be warmer at the coast in the onshore flow mid to upper 60s
and lower 60s inland where air is a bit drier.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Sunday...High pressure ridge axis remains north of the region across
the Carolinas and breezy Easterly flow will continue across NE FL/SE
GA, with strongest winds at the Atlantic Beaches at 15-20G25-30 mph
and mixing down to 10-15G20-25mph over inland areas by the afternoon
hours. The onshore flow will continue to keep temps slightly below
normal with highs in the mid/upper 70s for the Atlantic Coastal
counties and into the 80-85 range over inland areas. While an
isolated coastal shower cannot be ruled out, overall measurable
rainfall chances will remain in the "silent" 10-15% range with the
ongoing forecast.

Sunday Night...Not much change with the pattern other than a slight
shift to a Southeast steering flow through the overnight hours
which will lead to less wind than is expected tonight and will
allow for skies to become mostly clear over inland areas with
Strato-Cu clouds still pushing onshore along the Atlantic Coast.
Low temps expected to fall into the upper 50s inland and remain in
the 60s along the Atlantic Coast. Slightly less wind and cloud
cover over inland areas may lead to some patchy fog development,
but chances of any significant fog remain too low to include in
the forecast at this time.

Monday...High pressure ridge axis attempts to shift slowly southward
into the NE FL/SE GA region which will allow for the steering flow
to become more South-Southeast and lead to temps returning to more
normal levels with highs in the middle 80s over inland areas and
around 80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas. While the SE surface
flow will onshore and expect East Coast sea breeze to develop and
move inland, there will be a 10-15% chance of a sprinkle or shower
as it moves inland, but will continue to keep any measurable
rainfall "silent" in the ongoing forecast.

Monday Night...Ridge axis will remain across the region with a
light southerly steering flow under Mostly clear skies. Temps will
nudge upwards to slightly above normal levels with lows in the
lower 60s inland and mid/upper 60s along the Atlantic Coast.
Slightly stronger signal for some patchy late night dense fog by
sunrise Tuesday morning over inland areas, but too early to add to
the ongoing forecast, but something to monitor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Tuesday...The newer 12Z GFS/NAM model runs are suggesting a weaker
frontal boundary pushing into the region from NW with some widely
scattered shower/isolated storm activity during afternoon/evening
hours, which could interact with local sea breezes, but the ECMWF
model remains too dry with this feature for much in the way of
measurable rainfall so will continue ongoing "silent" forecast
with PoPs of 10-15%. Best chances for any rainfall will likely
across across inland SE GA. Ahead of this feature, Max temps will
push into the upper 80s/near 90 over inland areas with 80-85 temps
along the Atlantic Coast.

Wednesday through Saturday...With weak high pressure ridge
lingering in the region through the end of the week and
approaching frontal boundary from the Northwest, expect mainly
diurnal sea breezes to slowly push inland each day, but any
significant moisture remains limited and rainfall chances remain
on the low end in the 10-20% range, but cannot be ruled out on any
day along the sea breeze, while longer range models are suggesting
that better rainfall chances will exist by next weekend as
possible stronger frontal boundary pushes closer to the region.
While rainfall forecast remains low to moderate, models are
suggesting above normal temps through this period with a moderate
to high confidence of daily highs around 90 degrees over inland
areas and in the lower/middle 80s closer to the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the 18Z TAF period. Earlier
showers have progressed inland of the Northeast Florida TAF sites
with easterly winds elevated to 10-15 knots as strong high
pressure builds southward off the New England and Mid-Atlantic
coasts while a coastal trough remains over the coastal waters.
This coastal trough may continue enough convergent showers
approaching the sites from the Atlantic to warrant VCSH this
afternoon, but probability of higher coverage is too low to
include in this TAF set. Pinched gradient between the trough
moving onshore as the high builds south will create winds 15-20
knots at the coastal TAF sites SGJ/SSI/CRG with gusts 25-30 knots
and winds 12-15 knots inland with gusts of 20-25 knots. Marine
stratocumulus will continue overnight under increasing mid level
and high level clouds with winds diminishing after 00Z inland to
around 5 knots or less while lowering to around 10 knots at the
coast after 06Z-08Z. Mid level clouds will exit to the east Sunday
with VFR cumulus/marine stratocumulus and some high level clouds
with less breezy conditions from the east 10-15 knots gusting to
around 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Strong high pressure to the north northeast near the Mid-Atlantic
coast will sink southward down the eastern seaboard through this
evening with breezy easterly winds as a coastal trough over the
northeast Florida waters tightens the local pressure gradient and
Small Craft Advisory conditions the northeast Florida nearshore
waters and all of the offshore waters. Slightly less winds and
seas will bring Small Craft exercise caution conditions to the
Georgia nearshore waters. Isolated showers will shift westward
with the trough over the waters through this early evening. The
high will slowly weaken overnight as it shifts southward near the
North Carolina Outer Banks with winds diminishing near shore.
Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist offshore through
Sunday morning. Winds and seas will further subside late Sunday
into Sunday night as weaker high pressure anchors off the
southeastern seaboard early next week, followed by prevailing
winds shifting to southerly towards midweek.

Rip Currents: High Risk of Rip currents at all area beaches today.
A high risk is expected at all area beaches again on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Moderate Flooding continues over portions of the lowers Santa Fe
River near Three Rivers Estates, but should lower into minor
flooding by late Sunday, then remaining in minor flood through
next week. Minor flooding also continues along portions of the
Santa Fe River near Hildreth through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  82  57  85 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  66  75  65  78 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  65  79  61  83 /  10  10   0   0
SGJ  67  78  64  81 /   0  10   0   0
GNV  62  83  59  86 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  62  85  59  87 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$