040
FXUS63 KJKL 080931
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
531 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Our main thunderstorm potential lasts into early Thursday, with
  some showers then possible at times through early next week.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible until late tonight or early
  Thursday morning. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
  threats, but there is also a risk of tornadoes. Locally heavy
  rainfall could also lead to flash flooding.

- Above normal temperatures are forecast through Thursday. A cold
  front passing on Thursday will bring cooler temperatures from
  Friday through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 530 AM EDT WED MAY 8 2024

An updated short term discussion will be sent shortly.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 530 AM EDT WED MAY 8 2024

Cooler air will continue to flow into the region behind a
cold front departing to the southeast on Thursday night.
Significant precip will be gone by Thursday night, with only a
slight chance of showers lingering. Below normal temperatures are
expected to persist through the weekend. A mid-upper level trough
supporting the cool weather will be anchored over eastern Canada
and the northeast CONUS. Multiple waves will rotate around the
trough, with one passing over our area on Friday, and another on
Saturday. Each of these will bring a potential for an uptick in
showers. Have held back on the mention of thunder, with forecast
soundings suggesting convection won`t be deep enough.

The trough should be lifting out to the northeast on Sunday, with
rising geopotential heights locally. Along with warm air advection
and at least partial sunshine, warming temperatures will result.

After this point, model differences become more significant. An
upper low lingering above the western CONUS over the next several
days will begin to open up and get picked up in flow aloft. The
GFS is faster than the ECMWF to bring it eastward, and has light
precip arriving here from the west on Monday and carrying into
Tuesday. The slower ECMWF does not generate light precip until
Tuesday. A model blend would suggest nothing more than a slight
chance of precip Monday, followed by a chance on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT WED MAY 8 2024

Mainly VFR was reported at issuance time with some scattered low
clouds and MVFR in eastern KY. MVFR or lower was reported with
convection nearer to the OH River with strong wind gusts. This
convection should spread south and east during the first 6 to 19
hours of the period and lead to another period of lower CIGs and
visibilities at least as the storms pass, but still there is some
uncertainty at how far reductions will be and how this evolved
and if any of the TAF sites will be more affected than others.
Another relative lull in activity is anticipated between 12Z to
18Z. Another round or rounds of convection are anticipated
thereafter with some MVFR and IFR reductions at that activity
passes. The winds will remain out of the south and southwest at 10
KT or less sustained through the period, but some brief higher
gusts in excess of 30KT are possible with any thunderstorm
activity, especially after 18Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP