092
FXUS62 KKEY 281846
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
246 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
It has been another windy day across the Florida Keys along with
some showers to go along with it. KBYX radar detected showers for
much of the day across the Straits of Florida along with a few of
these showers affecting Boca Chica west to Key West on the Island
Chain. One of the showers poked up a fair bit potentially due to
speed convergence through Hawk Channel. East winds along the Chain
coupled with east to southeast winds just offshore may have
helped to raise the air parcels just off of Key West because one
shower was able to develop quite a bit vertically with a yellow
core even showing up on KAMX`s (Miami`s) radar. This meant that
this shower had vertical growth to it. Key West International
Airport (KEYW) measured 0.09 inches of rain from the showers
earlier today. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the
upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 60s.

Strong high pressure is currently centered offshore the North
Carolina coastline this afternoon. As a result, marine observation
platforms have been recording easterly winds near 20 knots with
occasional gusts to 25 knots with Island Chain communities
observing near 20 mph with gusts occasionally near 30 mph.

.FORECAST...
The forecast for the next week will continue to be dominated by
the aforementioned strong high pressure. This high pressure system
will continue to slowly move southeastward through mid-week to a
location about mid way between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Due to
this, expect windy conditions to continue along the Island Chain
tonight with winds gradually slackening through Monday due to the
high weakening as it moves to the aforementioned location. We
kept the 20% slight chances for showers tonight due to some
residual moisture remaining in the area. Slightly drier air begins
to move in Monday continuing through mid week resulting in the
10% PoPs maintained from the previous package.

Mid-late week, the previous high pressure begins to retreat
further into the Atlantic resulting in waxing and waning winds
along the Chain but remaining below breezy thresholds for the time
being. Also, a little moisture is expected to remain present in
the low levels keeping slight chances (10%) through the extended
forecast period. Also, expect a fairly stagnant pattern much of
the week with highs and lows as well as humidity remaining very
similar.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across the Florida Keys
coastal waters through early Monday morning. From synopsis, a
sprawling high pressure system centered southeast of New England
will maintain fresh to occasionally strong easterly breezes
tonight. As the high presses south into the western North
Atlantic, breezes will slacken, although occasionally fresh
breezes will continue through the first half of the week. The
aforementioned high moves east further into the mid to late week
resulting in peaking and lulling easterly breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. There is a chance for passing showers at EYW terminal that
could briefly deteriorate conditions to MVFR cigs or vis this
evening. Near surface winds will continue to be easterly and gusty
to near 25 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  75  82  76 /  20  20  20  10
Marathon  83  74  84  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....DR

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