Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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647 FXUS63 KLBF 062057 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 357 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy tonight, especially over northwestern Nebraska with westerly wind gusts up to around 55 mph. - Small threat for lingering showers/thunderstorms early this evening in the far northeastern forecast area. - Upper level low pressure will meander across the northern and central plains through mid week. This will lead to slightly cooler than normal temperatures and a threat for precipitation, mainly over central and northern Nebraska. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 H5 analysis this morning had an upper low over northern Colorado/southern Wyoming. A trough extended south-southwest of this feature into the Four Corners. Downstream of this feature, a negative tilted ridge extended from central Wisconsin, northwest into eastern Saskatchewan and central Manitoba. Downstream of this feature, a decent shortwave trough was located over the Bootheel of Missouri. The 2 PM CDT surface analysis has a low over far southeastern Montana. A Pacific cold front extended south-southeast of the low into the western Nebraska Panhandle and just east of the Palmer Divide of Colorado. A warm front extended east southeast of the low into central South Dakota and portions of north-central Nebraska. A dryline was present from west of Valentine, south to just east of North Platte, to east of Oakley Kansas, to the far eastern Texas Panhandle. Skies were generally cloudy east of highway 83 with clear to partly cloudy skies west of this route. Temperatures ranged from 61 degrees at Ainsworth to 78 degrees at North Platte. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 The upper level low will drift to the northeast tonight from the Black Hills into far southwestern North Dakota. On the southern periphery of the low, strong winds are noted around the 750mb level this evening. This area extends from northeastern Wyoming into the southern Black Hills and northern Nebraska. Winds at this level are in the 70 to 80 KT range this evening. With some additional low level cold air advection noted particularly tonight, feel a large portion of these wind velocities could make it to the surface, particularly over northern Sheridan, and to a lesser degree over western Cherry County. After looking at the hi res models (RAP and HRRR for surface wind gusts) decided to hoist a high wind warning for Sheridan County for tonight. Feel this is the area where the potential is greatest for 60+ MPH wind gusts particularly this evening. Elsewhere, there is another tongue of higher mid level winds over SW Nebraska this evening. However, low level cold air advection is less pronounced and given the diurnal timing, winds should stay below warning criteria further south. The upper level low will stall along the ND/SD border tomorrow. A weak disturbance will rotate around the southern periphery of the low Tuesday. With surface heating and cold air aloft could not rule out a stray shower over northern Nebraska and will leave this in the forecast. I did take out a mention of showers over the southern half of the forecast area where H500 temps are warmer and lesser instability is anticipated. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 The upper level low will meander south Wednesday into Thursday. This will lead to an increased threat for shower development, particularly during the late afternoon and early evening hours, when peak diurnal instability is realized. Anticipate this quickly ending each day by sundown with some clearing skies expected. The latest NBM forecast has widespread likely pops during the Wednesday and Thursday time periods and believe this is way overdone given the synoptic setup and low overall QPF forecast. Drier conditions will set in late in the week as the upper level low retrogrades southwest of the forecast area. A northern stream trough this weekend will finally pick up the remnants of the low and force it south then east of the area. Temperatures will moderate back into the 70s for the weekend and early next week with mainly dry conditions expected. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 VFR conditions are likely at both terminals through the forecast period. Main concerns will be the threat for convection and strong winds. For now, convection was developing along a line just east of LBF to just west of TIF. This was progressively pushing northeast away from LBF so no impacts are expected. For VTN, isolated development in vicinity of the terminal cannot be ruled out so have added a mention for a brief period this afternoon before exiting. Thereafter, winds shifting to the west will gust as high as 50 mph, strongest at VTN, and likely last through the evening. As this occurs, mid-level clouds will stream into the area but expectation is for ceilings to be at or above 10kft AGL. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Tuesday for NEZ004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...NMJ