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000
FXUS64 KLIX 250850
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
350 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

With the fear of sounding like a broken record it has been
another quiet uneventful night. Warmer yet again with most of the
region only in the 60s by 8z and not anticipating much more
cooling through sunrise today. The development of areas of light
to moderate fog with patches of dense fog has been something we
have been keeping an eye on but by 8z nothing yet has developed
but there is still a few hours and we likely will see some fog
develop right at sunrise. Some mid and upper lvl clouds are
streaming in from the northwest and this may be having a minor
effect on cooling and thus the production of fog.

For the next few days and through the weekend the word is...WARM. So
basically today, April 25th, is probably not the perfect date this
year as it is likely no one will need a light jacket today with
highs expected in the lower to mid 80s, sorry Miss Rhode Island. If
today is not perfect it definitely won`t be the next few days as we
looks to possibly be a degree or two warmer tomorrow and maybe this
weekend as well but clouds could play a little bit of a role in
keeping us from really warming as much as possible.

Ridging will continue to build across the eastern CONUS through the
weekend with the ridge axis getting east of the area early tomorrow.
This will place us in southwest flow aloft but with the ridge
building it will also allow the LL to warm another degree or two. It
will also keep the multiple disturbances that move across the Plains
tomorrow and through the weekend well off to our northwest and north
while we remain dry for the most part. It wouldn`t be a complete
shock though if we saw one or two light showers develop each day
this weekend after we have heated up, especially Sunday as moisture
continues to trickle up. Also just want to point out that if a few
showers can develop they likely will exhibit some rotation but given
how warm the temps will be from h8 to h7 any shower that develops
will be shallow and struggle to get above 7k ft. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Medium range models continue to exhibit good consistency and
continuity. Confidence remains slightly higher than normal in the
extended forecast with rain returning to some areas Monday into
Tuesday but no real frontal passage and the area remaining warm next
week. No deviations made from the NBM at this time.

Heading into the new work week the ridge that has dominated the
eastern seaboard and much of the southeast CONUS will finally begin
to feel of the multiple disturbances riding across the Plains and
towards the Great Lakes. The western periphery of the ridge should
sufficiently break down as the trough finally moves into the Lower
MS Valley late Monday. This should allow for4 showers and possible a
few thunderstorms to move into the area but it is beginning to look
like the northern half of the CWA may be the only area to really see
much rain. Looking a little deeper and it appears that even though
the ridge finally breaks down part of it is only being suppressed
into the Gulf and the ridge quickly tries to build into the coastal
areas of LA as it tries to reestablish itself over the western Gulf,
portions of the Lower MS Valley and southern Plains by midweek.
Medium range models even show hghts rising overnight Monday and
Tuesday just along and south of the SELA coast while we see a
weakness over southwest MS. That would favor higher rain chances
over the northern half of the area and much lower PoPs across
coastal SELA. The warm temps don`t go anywhere and look to stay with
us through next week. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Currently VFR at all terminals. Earlier mid level clouds
dissipated shortly after sunset. Main concern will be the
potential for development of radiation type fog around sunrise.
Where it does occur, IFR or lower conditions will be possible for
a few hours. Most favored terminals would be KMCB and KGPT, but
cannot rule it out entirely at most terminals. Should see rapid
improvement to VFR around 14z, with only scattered cumulus beyond
that point. Afternoon cloud bases will probably be around FL040,
with cumulus dissipating after sunset. Threat for fog Friday
morning should be less with a little more wind expected. /RW/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

One more benign day with high pressure keeping southeasterly winds
in check before winds start to increase in speed tomorrow and
especailly through the weekend. High pressure will continue to
slide east and should push off the Atlantic coast tomorrow while
multiple sfc low develop and move northeast through the Plains and
towards the Upper MS Valley and Great lakes through the weekend.
This will tighten the pressure gradient and headlines are expected
through the weekend possibly as early as late tomorrow. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  60  83  65 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  86  64  87  70 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  85  63  84  68 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  83  67  84  72 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  81  66  80  69 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  85  62  82  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...CAB