586
FXUS64 KLIX 181724 AAC
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1224 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...NEW AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Locally, convection continues to drift eastward generally
offshore. The latest infrared satellite imagery shows cloud tops
warming quickly with the convective complex over the Gulf. Indeed,
rainfall rates and overall decay of the MCS has been the trend of
the last hour or two. One small cluster of storms still resides
over Terrebonne Bay at the time of this discussion. This too
should decrease overtime as much of the forcing continues
downstream. So far, CAMs have done well capturing the exit of the
convection...so will allow them to lead the POP/QPF near term
through early afternoon. Outside of this, no real adjustments were
made in the midpoint outside of dropping the FFA as well as
adding fog overnight tonight in the fog favored spots across MS
and the FL Parishes of LA. With the wet soils think radiation fog
may develop, especially if we clear out overnight. That would be
the main limiting factor, which is still pretty low
confidence...so we`ll mention patchy fog for now until a stronger
signal is realized between now and Sunday AM. (Frye)

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Frontal boundary, such as it is, is likely somewhere near or south
of a Hattiesburg to Baton Rouge to Lake Charles line. Dew points
south of that line are well into the 70s, while in the 60s to the
north. Most of the strong thunderstorms remain over the Gulf of
Mexico this morning, but there is a band of storms over the Gulf
to the south of Lake Charles, that if they continue their current
northeastward movement, could produce a training scenario
producing heavy rainfall over portions of the Flood Watch area
over the next 6 hours. Precipitable water value on the special 03Z
LIX sounding was still 1.87 inches, so heavy rainfall still a
concern. For this reason, plan to hold onto the watch until
expiration, unless rain moves out of the area sooner. Pretty much
all guidance has rain moving offshore in the 15z-18z window or
sooner with the trough axis shifting to the east of the area. May
take until late afternoon or early evening to completely clear,
however. Beyond sunset this evening, the only real concern for the
remainder of the short term forecast period will be the potential
for some patchy radiation type fog around sunrise Sunday.

The rather wet ground may aid in the development of a cumulus
field across the area on Sunday, but shouldn`t have a major impact
on temperatures. As temperature guidance is fairly well clustered,
won`t depart from the NBM numbers.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Upper ridging that will move from northern Mexico into Texas on
Sunday will continue to work eastward into the Lower Mississippi
River Valley at midweek, and remain over the northern Gulf through
the end of the week. A shortwave may suppress it somewhat
southward by Thursday or Friday, but it still appears that
significant precipitation will be hard to come by through the end
of the work week next week after this morning`s rain. Unlikely to
be much in the way of change in temperatures from day to day
during the workweek, with readings generally 3 to 5 degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Mostly VFR with a few isolated pockets of MVFR CIGS to start this
cycle. VFR should win out later this afternoon and evening. VIS
reductions will be possible for most terminals with the lowest VIS
for the fog favored locations such as MCB and HUM. This should
lift quickly after sunrise Sunday morning leading to VFR
conditions to end the cycle. Winds will continue to remain mostly
light and variable. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Will cancel the Small Craft Advisory with forecast issuance, as
any winds greater than 15 knots or so will be convectively related
this morning. Thunderstorms should even move out of the coastal
waters later today or this evening.

Beyond today, winds are likely to remain below 15 knots through
much or all of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  89  66  89 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  70  93  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  69  92  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  72  90  74  90 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  69  90  70  87 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  68  92  67  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RDF
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RW